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啼吸誒腐誒來了
WTPN21 PGTW 261030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.8N 162.3E TO 8.0N 155.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.2N 160.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2N
160.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 160.1E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM EAST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 260853Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEPENED
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED
CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271030Z.//
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