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Meow|2014-11-20 03:08
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發布最後警報，名稱是「填塞中 1 號（前 Adjali）」。
WTIO30 FMEE 191847
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/1/20142015
1.A FILLING UP 1 (EX-ADJALI)
2.A POSITION 2014/11/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 70.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY DECIMAL
ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/11/20 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
24H: 2014/11/20 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
36H: 2014/11/21 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
48H: 2014/11/21 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 62.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2014/11/22 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2014/11/22 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND=015 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED VERY RAPIDLY AS IT
IS SHOWN BY THE PARTIAL ASCAT DATA AT 1719Z WITH MAX WINDS OF 25KT
NEAR THE CENTER.
THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS TOTALLY COLLAPSED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER NORTH-WESTERLY WINDS, AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL LOW LEVELS HIGH PRESSURES.
ON THIS TRACK,THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR THE NEXT DAYS, AND ALL THE AVALAIBLE NWP MODELS FORECAST THE
WEAKENING OF THE RESIDUAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP ON A
WESTWARD PATH ON FRIDAY, AND WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD FROM SATURDAY.
THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES
ARCHIPELAGO ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.=
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