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Meow|2014-10-19 19:07
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仍是熱帶氣旋，稍早還以一級颶風強度掠過紐芬蘭。處在北緯 46 度以上、海溫 15 度以下，Gonzalo 還未失去熱帶性質，可謂相當難得。
000
WTNT43 KNHC 190832
TCDAT3
HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014
A small CDO feature persists near the center of Gonzalo, although
cloud tops have warmed a bit recently. The initial intensity has
been nudged downward to 75 kt for this advisory, assuming some
weakening now that the cyclone is moving over SSTs of less than 15
deg C. Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today and
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, post-
tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain an intensity of 45 kt over
the north Atlantic until the system dissipates shortly after 48
hours. The NHC intensity forecast is based on guidance from the
global models and the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.
Gonzalo has accelerated over the past 6 hours and is now racing
northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 040/45 knots. The
global models are in good agreement on the cyclone accelerating
east-northeastward over the north Atlantic during the next couple of
days. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF
models through dissipation and is near the latest guidance from OPC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 46.3N 52.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 50.1N 44.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/0600Z 53.4N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/1800Z 56.2N 15.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0600Z 58.5N 2.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brennan |
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