birdlover

在一個臉書專業上看到的~
看來目前有兩條路徑
不是被鳳凰變的低氣壓往北拉
不然就是被高壓壓著往西走

不知道哪個比較有可能??

資料來源:westernpacificweather

krichard2011

JMA 稍早發布GW !! @@

熱帯低気圧
平成26年09月22日22時15分 発表

<22日21時の実況>
大きさ        -
強さ        -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
中心位置        北緯 11度55分(11.9度)
東経 148度50分(148.8度)
進行方向、速さ        北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧        1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速        15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速        23m/s(45kt)

<23日21時の予報>
強さ        -
存在地域        マリアナ諸島
予報円の中心        北緯 15度00分(15.0度)
東経 148度30分(148.5度)
進行方向、速さ        北 15km/h(8kt)
中心気圧        998hPa
中心付近の最大風速        18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速        25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径        220km(120NM)

丹尼兒

來看看EC00Z的預測 分歧仍然相當大 但整體而言又較上報西調不少...

如果成真 還真有機會效仿05年的龍王或著更久遠的1969艾爾西秋季遠洋撲台路徑阿...當然日子還久 變動率太高了 目前先看看它能否熬上他頭頂上那個槽及弱點阿

Meow

不論未來會成真還是意淫，這張 ECMWF 預測 9 月 30 日 00Z 的 850 百帕層面風場還是值得紀念，最大風速 72 m/s。

birdlover

剛剛看到這張圖~
如果接近台灣的是北冕的話
那後面那隻是..

丹尼兒

12Z EC新報系集 持續往西南調 不排除稍後速報路徑往南調整

Meow

JTWC 稍後應有所行動了，可能發佈 TCFA 或直接編號 17W。

TPPN10 PGTW 221812

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98W (SE OF GUAM)

B. 22/1732Z

C. 12.1N

D. 148.1E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES WITH DT, WHILE MET IS
UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   CHAPPOTIN

Meow

果不其然，JTWC 發佈了 TCFA。



WTPN21 PGTW 221900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 148.1E TO 17.5N 147.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 148.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.5N
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 148.1E, APPROXIMATELY 200NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. THE AREA OF CONVECTION, WHILE EXTREMELY BROAD,
HAS STARTED TO SHOW SOME CONSOLIDATION. A 221632Z SSMI MICROWAVE
IMAGES SHOWS VERY FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVER ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE, WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) SHEAR.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS WITH THE MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATING OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231900Z.//
NNNN