陳俊閔

這個熱帶擾動必須要注意的是它的發展而且路徑一路是往西偏所以現在要觀察的是它要在什麼地方北轉這關係著對台灣的影響程度為何。

blackcat

早上起來原本以為90W要消散
然後關島附近的擾動會給予編號
結果過了中午後90W對流又重新爆發
看來這2個小低壓會持續纏鬥
從駛流場似乎看出些端倪

millerkit31

南海中部至關島都籠罩在一大片低壓帶之下,當中以現時已在南海的90W及關島以東的低壓較具發展潛力;兩個低壓兩天鬥得難分難解,互有勝負;暫時來說,雖然兩者中心氣壓同為1002HPA,但南海低壓的雲爆得較多,亦稍為有組織，點數上略勝一籌。
然而,副高於未來一二天仍十分弱,東退遠遠的,相信關島附近的低壓北上機會較高；北上後移入較涼水域,最終能否發展成熱低,仍屬五五波;至於南海低壓則會西北西移動,橫過南海北部東沙以南海面,發展環境較佳(較低風切,較低緯度擁水溫優勢,西南季風水氣支援較多等),故加強成熱低機會較高;
當然,亦有可能出現另一情況,就是當關島低壓北走後,兩個低壓距離拉遠,水氣爭奪沒那麼激烈下,確有機會各自修為,自成一格,分別發展成兩個熱帶系統也是說不定會發生的!!
暫時,個人估計,
南海低壓48小時內加強成TD-->機會50%;關島的<40%

陳俊閔

這兩個低壓後續都要觀察是否對台灣造成影響

t02436

再度評級Low

      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7N 118.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCUALTION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED, ALBEIT
FORMATIVE, CONVECTION DISPLACED WESTWARD. THE LLCC IS WELL-DFFINED
IN A 050201Z ASCAT PASS WITH 05-10 KNOT WIND BARBS AROUND THE RIM.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER THE SAME EASTERLY
WINDS ARE PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

風切微弱
數值暫時還不是很看好發展

服部武藏

熱帶性低氣壓１００２百帕，在北緯１５度，東經１１７度，即在南海，向西北移動，時速１５公里。

CWB編為熱帶低壓了@@....

啊呀 不知道後續狀況為何呢

t02436

服部武藏 發表於 2014-9-6 08:57
熱帶性低氣壓１００２百帕，在北緯１５度，東經１１７度，即在南海，向西北移動，時速１５公里。

CWB編為 ...

JMA 18Z 已經升格TD~
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 14N 117E WEST SLOWLY.


只是目前對流還很散.....




JTWC升Medium

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
118.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 116.7E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED  EIR SHOWS IMPROVING ORGANIZATION
TO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCUALTION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE, CONVECTIVE
BANDING DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE LLCC IS WELL-
DEFINED IN A 051357Z ASCAT PASS WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION IN THE DEEP, PERSISTENT, CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

JMA搶先發出GW
WTPQ20 RJTD 060000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 060000UTC 15.3N 117.3E POOR

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 1004HPA

MXWD 030KT

GUST 045KT

FORECAST

24HF 070000UTC 16.5N 115.0E 120NM 70%

MOVE WNW 06KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT =

熱帯低気圧
平成26年09月06日10時15分 発表
<06日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 南シナ海
中心位置 北緯 15度20分(15.3度)
東経 117度20分(117.3度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<07日09時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 南シナ海
予報円の中心 北緯 16度30分(16.5度)
東経 115度00分(115.0度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 998hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)