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krichard2011|2014-8-28 21:39
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哇賽 NHC 除了預測這隻強度會有第二高峰
登陸冰島前還有 50KT 耶@@
不過海溫並不支持 近入高緯後勢必將喪失熱帶性質
會增強到如此強度
根據NHC報文指出 可能是未來將與北方鋒面產生交互作用
產生的斜壓能 才能讓這個系統能有如此的風力...
所以這個系統未來可能將是一個強而有力的溫帶氣旋或副熱帶氣旋
000
WTNT44 KNHC 280832
TCDAT4
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014
Cristobal's satellite presentation is more typical of a tropical
cyclone tonight than yesterday at this time. There is a symmetric
area of very deep convection concentrated near the center, and
Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of
65 kt. There is a small opportunity for intensification as
indicated by some models, but it is becoming more likely that it
will be enhanced by baroclinic processes as the cyclone interacts
with a frontal zone. Cristobal will move over 17-degree Celsius
waters and lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours. It
should then become an intense extratropical cyclone with winds of
hurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days.
The hurricane is already embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies
and is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 25 knots and
accelerating. There is no reason to change the track forecast from
the previous one, and the official forecast track continues to be in
good agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA and the GFS
ensemble mean.
The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts have been coordinated
with the Ocean Prediction Center.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0900Z 35.6N 67.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 37.8N 63.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 41.5N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 46.0N 47.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 30/0600Z 50.0N 40.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0600Z 59.5N 28.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0600Z 63.0N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z...ABSORBED
$$
Forecaster Avila |
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