you

GFS突然把預報提高，在156小時的預報圖畫出了清晰的風眼。

you

99w對流引爆，螺旋型愈來愈明顯。

t02436

評級Low

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 154.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING FEEDING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT
(05-10 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
PERENNIALLY WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) AND CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERIC MODELS, HOWEVER, ARE NOT DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM TO JTWC
WARNING CRITERIA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

========
對流還是一樣衰弱= =

you

他消消散散的，可能是乾空氣所致，中心的雲帶吹乾了不少。

you

99w雲帶稀薄，對流消長，過去不斷減弱，而且他的風圈遍離重心。不過他的幅合&幅散挺強，而且螺旋性也很強,希望他能對流爆發，現在他的結構真的糟糕極了  -_- 不排除他稍後會裸露，看來他要發展也不易,水氣仍然很少…

you

入夜後,99w依然沒有改善,一盤散沙。現在風切強了些,不知會否對他的發展有影響。最後還是要重提:乾空氣...:'(:'(:'(

you

受副高影響,99w未來可能會轉北,由於該區風切很強,附近的乾空氣可能會和他一起阻撓99w發展。 :funk::funk::funk:
GFS路徑圖

甜心

今天去看了一下99w低氣的雲圖發現它現在況很糟糕附近風切有增強局勢雖然東西兩側的環流雲系發展的還不錯...，不過話說回來雖然日廳跟美軍有給標示中心大概位置但那個點在雲圖跟水氣圖上看來就像片薄紗一樣幾乎看不太出組織不知是否正在裸奔。