22S.Ivanoe 現正逐漸轉化成溫帶氣旋

martin191919 · 2014-4-4 21:36

MFR升TD

GFS也預料可能轉溫

martin191919 · 2014-4-4 21:49

JTWC升22S

t02436 · 2014-4-4 22:11

竟然30kts就升22S了...
強度應該會再調升

移速偏快加上環流廣泛整合不易
整體上強度是不被看好

預測超越24S海溫就不適合發展

不過明天命名應該還是有希望的

martin191919 · 2014-4-4 23:19

本帖最後由 martin191919 於 2014-4-4 23:28 編輯

t02436 發表於 2014-4-4 22:11
竟然30kts就升22S了...
強度應該會再調升

不止30kts了，35kts才升....

WTXS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040351ZAPR2014//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 79.4E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 79.4E
---
FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 19.3S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 22.2S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 25.7S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.7S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 35.9S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 699 NMSOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. A 041245Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. A 040337Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND BARBS. RECENT IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED A FMEE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A DEEP MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 22S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO ACCELERATE BETWEEN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN THE STR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TC 22S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 36 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS ASSOCIATED WITH MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TC 22S SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. DUE TO THE MARGINAL CONDITIONS, TC 22S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 040351Z APR 14 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 040400).//
NNNN

martin191919 · 2014-4-5 11:03

JTWC 升至 40kts

MFR 仍維持TD，預計轉溫

martin191919 · 2014-4-5 14:48

MFR 命名 IVANOE

BULLETIN DU 05 AVRIL A 10H39 LOCALES:

IL N'Y A PAS D'ALERTE EN COURS A LA REUNION, ET AUCUNE MENACE CYCLONIQUE N'EST ENVISAGEE POUR LES PROCHAINES 72 HEURES

**************************************************

NATURE DU SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE TROPICAL PRESENT SUR LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN

TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE IVANOE
PRESSION ESTIMEE AU CENTRE : 993 HPA
POSITION LE 05 AVRIL A 10 HEURES LOCALES: 19.3 SUD / 82.0 EST
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES TROIS SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)

DISTANCE DES COTES REUNIONNAISES : 2735 KM AU SECTEUR: EST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST A 19 KM/H

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS:

DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 06/04 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 26.4 S / 86.4 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 07/04 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 35.5 S / 91.7 E

DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE,
CENTRE POSITIONNE LE 08/04 A 10H LOCALES PAR: 36.2 S / 101.3 E

ATTENTION: LES PREVISIONS DE TRAJECTOIRE ET D'INTENSITE PRECEDENTES SONT A CONSIDERER AVEC LA PLUS GRANDE PRUDENCE COMPTE TENU DE LEUR INCERTITUDE. ELLES NE CONCERNENT QUE LA POSITION DU CENTRE DU PHENOMENE, SANS CONSIDERATION SUR SON EXTENSION.
-------------------------------------------------

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN VERS 17H00 LOCALES

krichard2011 · 2014-4-5 22:03

最新一張底層
疑似底層風眼要轉出來了 @@
對流也大量爆發會不會有什麼驚喜
值得觀察不過它的緯度也有點偏高了...

t02436 · 2014-4-6 08:56

本帖最後由 t02436 於 2014-4-6 08:58 編輯

轉化前夕MFR 00Z升STS
對流跟Ita一樣大爆發
只是毫無組織性= =
即將移過25S ,逐漸走向轉化之路

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/15/20132014
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 15 (IVANOE)
2.A POSITION 2014/04/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.5 S / 87.0 E
(TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-EAST 26 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :26 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SW: 110 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 80 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/04/06 12 UTC: 31.1 S / 89.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2014/04/07 00 UTC: 34.6 S / 91.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2014/04/07 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 94.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2014/04/08 00 UTC: 35.3 S / 98.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
60H: 2014/04/08 12 UTC: 34.9 S / 102.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
72H: 2014/04/09 00 UTC: 33.5 S / 105.5 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/04/10 00 UTC: 29.8 S / 108.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW