簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2014-4-2 14:12
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.1N
153.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.5N 150.1E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 012311Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS WEAK FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING BROADLY WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. A 012355Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10 TO 15 KNOT ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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