95S 取消評級深入內陸發展受限

martin191919 · 2014-2-4 16:40

Potential Cyclones:

At 1:00 pm EST [12:30 pm CST] Tuesday 4 February, Ex-Tropical Cyclone Fletcher
was located over land, near the far southeast Gulf of Carpentaria at 16.9S
141.3E, about 80 northeast of Karumba, Queensland. Refer to the latest tropical
cyclone warnings for further details [www.bom.gov.au/cyclone]. This low is
expected to move west southwest over the far southeast Gulf of Carpentaria
later today and may briefly redevelop into a tropical cyclone overnight
Tuesday, before moving across the Queensland Gulf Country during Wednesday,
then further west over the eastern Roper-McArthur or Barkly District of the
Northern Territory later on Wednesday or Thursday. This low is expected to
weaken as it moves inland and will weaken within the monsoon trough by Friday.

Likelihood of this low being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Wednesday    Moderate
Thursday       Low
Friday       Low

At 12:30 pm CST Tuesday 4 February, another tropical low, 996 hPa, was located
near 15.5S 132.3E, about 100 km west of Larrimah and moving east southeast at
14 km/h. This low is expected to continue moving east southeast to be located
over the Roper-McArthur District during Wednesday, then remain slow moving over
the eastern Roper-McArthur District during Thursday and Friday. By Saturday,
this low is expected to move west again. Although the low is expected to remain
over land, there is a possibility the low will move over the southwest Gulf of
Carpentaria on Thursday or Friday as it interacts with Ex-Tropical Cyclone
Fletcher, prior to recurving back to the west. For this reason, there is a
moderate risk that the low may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of this low being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Wednesday    Low
Thursday       Moderate
Friday       Moderate

krichard2011 · 2014-2-4 19:04

這隻雖然已經深入陸地
稍早的可見光可以看到明顯的LLCC
代表進入陸地之後結構並未遭受太大的傷害
對流在剛剛再度爆發會不會有什麼奇蹟
值得繼續看下去

t02436 · 2014-2-4 21:02

這隻...奇葩啊
深入內陸底層還沒被切爛(雖然也不是太好==)

看連續動畫gif會發現他越爆越多對流0.0
陸地上也會入夜對流加強??

另外EC的預報會持續東行與94P合體後再西行

BoM最新的展望給出中等
倒是94P只給Low
值得一看

At 12:30 pm CST Tuesday 4 February, another tropical low, 996 hPa, was located
near 15.5S 132.3E, about 100 km west of Larrimah and moving east southeast at
14 km/h. This low is expected to continue moving east southeast to be located
over the Roper-McArthur District during Wednesday, then remain slow moving over
the eastern Roper-McArthur District during Thursday and Friday. By Saturday,
this low is expected to move west again. Although the low is expected to remain
over land, there is a possibility the low will move over the southwest Gulf of
Carpentaria on Thursday or Friday as it interacts with Ex-Tropical Cyclone
Fletcher, prior to recurving back to the west. For this reason, there is a
moderate risk that the low may develop into a tropical cyclone.

Likelihood of this low being a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Wednesday    Low
Thursday       Moderate
Friday       Moderate

martin191919 · 2014-2-6 09:51

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.3S
132.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.6S 131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LLCC IS MAINTAINING A GOOD OVERALL STRUCTURE
DESPITE CONTINUING TO TRACK INLAND. RADAR LOOP FROM HALLS CREEK
DEPICTS THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY SLOWING DOWN AND LOOPING BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST, NEAR WYNDHAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. BASED ON THE SYSTEM BEING
OVERLAND AND TRACKING TOWARDS THE COAST, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

... · 2014-2-8 00:25

本帖最後由 ... 於 2014-2-8 02:37 編輯

目前95S在登陸後先是向東而又向西回頭
來到先前登陸點附近結構仍可
可能接下來會出海起死回生喔@@

不過EC認為它將一路貼在澳洲陸地旁 (此張是+96
而在這之後再次登陸
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
底下是雷達圖

真的頗誇張

t02436 · 2014-2-8 00:32

A well-structured tropical low lies over the northern Kimberley near Wyndham
this midday. This system is forecast to move generally west or southwest during
the next few days. Late Sunday into Monday, this system could move off the
Kimberley coast and develop into a tropical cyclone. If the system tracks
inland, risk is diminished. Risk increases for the east and central Pilbara
coast on Monday and Tuesday if this system tracks offshore.

Flood watches and warnings are in effect due to heavy rainfall from this
system. Isolated totals over 200mm are possible in a 24 hour period near this
system. For more details, click 'Warnings' at www.bom.gov.au

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Saturday       Low
Sunday       Moderate
Monday       High

BoM展望預計兩天後會出海發展
但不排除也有陸上減弱的可能
只是這螺旋性會不會太猛了點="=

t02436 · 2014-2-8 18:39

這隻也是...Orz

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4S
129.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 128E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THE RADAR LOOP FROM WYNDHAM, AUSTRALIA DEPICT THE SYSTEM IS
MAINTAINING AN ORGANIZED STRUCTURE OVERLAND WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. NUMERIC MODELS INDICATE THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE BACK OVER WATER WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

t02436 · 2014-2-9 15:29

Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.4S
Longitude: 124.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [254 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure[UTC]       : degrees    :    nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  09/1200: 17.7S 123.6E:    035 [070]:  030  [055]:  988
+12:  09/1800: 17.9S 122.9E:    050 [090]:  030  [055]:  988
+18:  10/0000: 18.3S 122.2E:    060 [115]:  030  [055]:  988
+24:  10/0600: 18.8S 121.7E:    075 [135]:  030  [055]:  988
+36:  10/1800: 19.8S 120.9E:    095 [175]:  030  [055]:  988
+48:  11/0600: 20.7S 120.0E:    115 [210]:  030  [055]:  990
+60:  11/1800: 22.1S 119.7E:    135 [245]:  025  [045]:  992
+72:  12/0600: 23.9S 119.9E:    150 [280]:  025  [045]:  992
+96:  13/0600: 27.4S 122.9E:    195 [365]:  025  [045]:  992