08S.Colin 進入高緯轉化為溫帶氣旋＊

Meow · 2014-1-11 21:01

大爆發，JTWC 給 90 節，MFR 更直接給到 85 節了。

WTIO30 FMEE 111212
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/6/20132014
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (COLIN)
2.A POSITION 2014/01/11 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.6 S / 79.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL
SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :26 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2014/01/12 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2014/01/12 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 76.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2014/01/13 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2014/01/13 12 UTC: 23.2 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2014/01/14 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 72.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2014/01/14 12 UTC: 27.4 S / 72.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2014/01/15 12 UTC: 33.0 S / 77.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2014/01/16 12 UTC: 40.3 S / 91.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5-
THIS SYSTEM OF SMALL SIZE, HAS GONE THROUGH A RAPID INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. AN EYE ALSO OF SMALL SIZE VISIBLE SINCE
06UTC HAS QUICKLY WARMED UP. INTENSITY AT 00UTC, AND 06UTC HAS BEEN
REVIEWED RESPECTIVELY AT 3.5 AND 4.0. DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM,
THE CONTRAINTS RULES OF 1.0 IN 6 HOURS HAS BEEN BROKEN.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTH-WESTWARD, ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF
THE MID-TROPOSHERIC HIGH PRESSURES. DURING THE NEXT DAYS, IT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS REGULAR TRACK. FROM TUESDAY 14, THE
TRACK SHOULD RECURVE SOUTHWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD TOWARDS A POLAR
TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH. THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THIS FORECAST TRACK. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODEL SHOWS A VERY GOOD
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TRACK.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE WIND-SHEAR CONSTRAINT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEAK WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL
SHOULD ALWAYS BENEFIT TO THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT HOURS, AS THE SST
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TO BECOME MARGINAL TOMORROW.
THUS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY UNTIL SUNDAY.FROM
MONDAY, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE WITH COLDER SST AND THE
STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND-SHEAR. THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND THEN UNDERGO A EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.=

複製代碼

新細明體 · 2014-1-12 02:57

WTIO30 FMEE 111838

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20132014

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (COLIN)

2.A POSITION 2014/01/11 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 79.2 E

(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL

TWO DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :13 KM