jwpk9899

  特強氣旋風暴  
   編號：BOB07 (05B)    
   名稱：Lehar


  基本資料     
    擾動編號日期：2013  年 11 月 20 日 05 時
　命名日期　　：2013  年 11 月 24 日 12 時
　消散日期　　：2013  年 11 月 29 日 10 時
　登陸地點         : 印度安德拉邦

  巔峰時期資料  
　近中心最強風速 / 海平面最低氣壓      
    印度氣象局(IMD)  ：  75   kts (   VSCS    )
    美國海軍 (JTWC)  ：  75   kts (   CAT 1   )   
    中央氣象局 (CWB)： XX  m/s (    中颱   )
    海平面最低氣壓    ： 982 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
92W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.4N.105E


以上資料來自 : JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

跳過Low直接升評Medium!
GFS非常樂觀...猛貨一隻
印度偏東部沿海將再度悲劇


AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N 101.6E, APPROXIMATELY 459 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA AS DEPICTED BY A 210450Z OSCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY IN AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND IS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS THE DISTURBANCE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IT WILL ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-31 DEGREES CELSIUS AND POCKETS OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF DEEPENING FROM VARIOUS MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

t02436

TCFA!
FNMOC已經把他移到印度洋
現在中心應該進到孟灣了

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 99.7E, IS NOWLOCATED NEAR 6.1N 99.1E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK,THAILAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HASBEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AFTER IT MOVED OFFSHORE FROM THE MALAY PENINSULAINTO THE ANDAMAN SEA. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICT A WELL-FORMEDLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THENORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM ISSOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE(10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS ISEASILY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE.  AS THE DISTURBANCEMOVES FURTHER WEST INTO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 DEGREESCELSIUS) AND POCKETS OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, THERE IS A GOODCHANCE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AREESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATEDTO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ASIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH

t02436

老J升格05B!!
路徑第一報還沒出來
IMD只評低壓區還沒有升深低壓



中心在安達曼海
衛星雲圖還蠻有氣勢的...渦度泛白風切中等
底層環流還要進一步整合
印度又要繃緊神經了...

t02436

第一報出爐!
上看100kts /Cat.3
預估登陸點跟Helen差不多

jwpk9899

我想說的是...兩個機構預測路徑類似
不過這預估的強度也落差太大...
100kt V.S 57kt...

stavies

氣象局真是越來越有個性了
氣壓竟然用mb表示
而且IMD還沒升氣旋風暴 氣象局已經自己升了

t02436