簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2013-11-14 01:02
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老J再也忍不下去了
取消TCFA降評MEDIUM.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 118.9E,IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 117.0E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 131332Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED, ILL-DEFINED LLCC WITH AN ISOLATED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRYPASS INDICATES ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WITH DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD INTO A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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