J18

氣象局今下午的天氣圖
把93w標上一個L符號
比日本來的提早 我想氣象局開始在關注他了!

powerng

不過，cwb的7天預測圖支持93w進入南海。

ben811018

南海有燕子颱風～９３受到其外圍環流及副高導引，很快的會往西北移動

９３螺旋雲系滿明顯的，不過是否能夠順利發展起來還很難說

繼續觀察吧！

millerkit31

整體來說,如一切仔象因素沒變,93w將能順利發長成一熱低,因渦度頗為明顯,雲圖也清楚顯示菲東有雲在旋轉。由於飛燕與這低壓系統相距都近，故兩者可能會有互相干擾路徑之可能。若再配合副高之駛流引導的話，以及考量副高及後會再次加強西伸的因素，相信這低壓系統初時會向西北偏北移動，及後行至呂宋海峽或巴士海峽後(其時飛燕應已登陸廣東西部)，將轉為西北偏西移動，進入南海東北部。

丹尼兒

開始分析93W T值了 貼下最新報文

SSD:T1.0/1.0

TXPQ24 KNES 311508
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B.  31/1432Z

C.  16.9N

D.  124.8E

E.  THREE/MTSAT

F.  T1.0/1.0/D0.5/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/TMI

H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING FOR DT=1.5.  MET AND PT=1.0.  FT IS BASED ON
INITIAL CLASSIFICATION CONSTRAINTS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    31/1237Z 17.0N 125.0E TMI


...SALEMI

看看明晨會不會升級

愚輝

93W的低層風場組織甚差,加上外圍的VWS頗強並持續增加中,我個人暫時並不看好其發展.

J18

JTWC將它評級為MEDIUM

丹尼兒

SSD：T1.5，DT更是分析到3.0！!

照這情況給個熱低壓等級是綽綽有餘  不過要成台恐怕來不及了 即將碰觸到南台陸地

TXPQ24 KNES 312136
TCSWNP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B.  31/2101Z

C.  18.2N

D.  123.7E

E.  FIVE/MTSAT

F.  T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI

H.  REMARKS...VERY INTERESTING SYSTEM THAT IS RAPIDLY MOVING NW JUST
NE OF LUZON...CONVECTION IS ARCHED IN A NICE BAND THAT MEASURES .6 ON
LOG10 FOR DT OF 3.0... HOWEVER THIS SEEMS VERY UNREALISTIC GIVEN LOW
LEVEL ORGANIZATION PRESENTED IN 1851Z SSMI PASS.  THIS PASS AND SWIR
HINT AT LEAST A MID LEVEL AND POSSIBLE WEAK SFC INFLECTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...85GHZ PATTERN IS SUGGESTIVE OF A STRONG SELY
JET (WITH THE LLC/MLC BEING THE WESTERN ROTOR AT THE NOSE OF SAID JET).
MET IS 1.5. PT AGREES.  FT IS BASED ON MET. CONFIDENCE IN CENTER LOCATION
AND INTENSITY IS VERY LOW.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    31/1851Z 18.0N 123.8E SSMI


...GALLINA