888894

JTWC已經把91W再次升回medium了
看來成颱的機率還是很高的

ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZJUL2013//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
118.E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.0E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM, EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
ACTIVE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, HAS EXPANDED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, ENHANCED BY A SOUTHWEST SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
JUST SOUTHWEST OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LIGHT (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN
A WEAK VORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA TOWARDS HAINAN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ALL HAVE FORECAST
MAXIMUM INTENSTIES BELOW 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, BASED ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
PASS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN
VIEW OF THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

马鞍二世

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N
118.E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.0E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM, EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
ACTIVE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, HAS EXPANDED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS, ENHANCED BY A SOUTHWEST SURGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
JUST SOUTHWEST OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH LIGHT (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN
A WEAK VORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA TOWARDS HAINAN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ALL HAVE FORECAST
MAXIMUM INTENSTIES BELOW 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS, BASED ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
PASS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN
VIEW OF THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Medium，现在正在南海中部，涡度泛橙！但环流还有待整合

powerng

這是越南氣象對91W的預測。

J18

菲律賓預測的路徑!
和各國一致

zjk369

时    间： 31 日 05 时
中心位置： 北纬 14.8 度、东经 116.3 度
强度等级： 热带低压
最大风力： 7 级， 15 米/秒（约 54 公里/时）
中心气压： 1001 hPa
参考位置： 距离海南省文昌市东南方约790公里的南海中部海面。
预报结论： 将以每小时 5～10 公里的速度向 北偏西 方向移动，逐渐向我国南海西北部海面靠近，强度将明显加强。

中央气象台31日06时发布热带低压预报：
2013年7月31日02时在南海中部有热带低压生成， 05时其中心位于我国海南省文昌市东南方约790公里的南海中部海面上，就是北纬14.8度，东经116.3度，中心附近最大风力有7级（15米/秒），中心最低气压为1001百帕。预计，该低压将以每小时5～10公里的速度向北偏西方向移动，逐渐向我国南海西北部海面靠近，强度将明显加强，即将于31日上午发展为今年第9号热带风暴。
受南海热带低压和西南季风的共同影响，7月31日08时到8月1日08时，南海中东部和南部将有6～7级大风，中心经过的海面风力可达8～9级。

马鞍二世

中央气象台31日06时发布热带低压预报：

2013年7月31日02时在南海中部有热带低压生成， 05时其中心位于我国海南省文昌市东南方约790公里的南海中部海面上，就是北纬14.8度，东经116.3度，中心附近最大风力有7级（15米/秒），中心最低气压为1001百帕。预计，该低压将以每小时5～10公里的速度向北偏西方向移动，逐渐向我国南海西北部海面靠近，强度将明显加强，即将于31日上午发展为今年第9号热带风暴。

受南海热带低压和西南季风的共同影响，7月31日08时到8月1日08时，南海中东部和南部将有6～7级大风，中心经过的海面风力可达8～9级。
WTPQ20 BABJ 301800
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TD  08  INITIAL TIME 301800 UTC
00HR 14.7N 116.3E 1002HPA 15M/S
P12HR NNW 9KM/H
P+24HR 16.4N 115.3E 990HPA 23M/S=

WTPQ20 RJTD 302100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME  TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN  302100UTC 14.9N 116.4E POOR
MOVE  NW SLOWLY
PRES  1000HPA
MXWD  030KT
GUST  045KT
FORECAST
24HF  312100UTC 16.2N 114.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE  WNW 06KT
PRES  996HPA
MXWD  035KT
GUST  050KT =


你们难道不觉得NMC野心很大，肯定上午命名，就算没有，也会捡野孩子的

J18

TCFA囉!

powerng

天文台數值表示91w北上，有可能進一步影響廣東。