簽到天數: 936 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
|
JTWC Update
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 126.7E TO 16.9N 121.4EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 152332Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 14.6N 126.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED WEAK BANDING AND FLARING DEEP CONVECTION.
A TIME SERIES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND 850 MB VORTICITY INDICATES THE STEADILY IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD,
GOOD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH, AND MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. SEVERAL DYNAMICAL MODELS AND TC GENESIS PRODUCTS FORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE TC GENESIS AIDS AND THE OBSERVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
Translation: This may become a weak cyclone in the next 24 hours. Currently moving slowly westward.
快要形成了
|
|
