krichard2011

JTWC已於剛剛對JTWC發出TCFA
以上是在下課時間於學校圖書館偷發 ... XD
   THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0S 83.5E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2S 82.6E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME
BETTER-DEFINED. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES, THE LATEST OF WHICH IS A
072334Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE PASS, SHOW THE PROGRESSIVE CONSOLIDATION OF
THE FEEDER BANDS THAT ARE MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VWS. THE VWS,
HOWEVER, IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO START TRACKING MORE POLEWARD INTO LOWER VWS.
THE DYNAMIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA, MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE SIGNIFICANT
CONSOLIDATION AND ANTICIPATED LOWER VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.

阿隆

krichard2011

CDO開始爆發
但是窘境是風切有夠強~
未來越往西行 環境將越來越差
除非有好轉 否則照這樣下去
未來強度方面可能不會很理想

jwpk9899

升格24S
24S.INVEST 08 MAY 2013 1300Z

krichard2011

JTWC的TC預報圖出來了
誤差圈超大
未來預測將沿著10S緯度線西行
強度上看Cat.1

Meow

這次不曉得怎麼了，JTWC 已經升格熱帶氣旋，MFR 卻連熱帶擾動都還沒有。

阿隆

Meow

MFR 根據 CI2.5 評價 30 節的熱帶低氣壓第 11 號，倒是 JTWC 根據 CI2.0 竟評價熱帶氣旋 24S 為 40 節。




WTIO30 FMEE 090630
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/11/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  11
2.A POSITION 2013/05/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.9 S / 85.6 E
(SIX    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 70 SW: 240 NW: 240
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/05/09 18 UTC: 7.8 S / 86.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2013/05/10 06 UTC: 8.5 S / 86.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
36H: 2013/05/10 18 UTC: 9.1 S / 86.9 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2013/05/11 06 UTC: 9.6 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2013/05/11 18 UTC: 10.1 S / 87.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2013/05/12 06 UTC: 10.5 S / 86.8 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/05/13 06 UTC: 10.9 S / 85.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2013/05/14 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 81.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 AND CI=2.5
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE IS NOW LOCATED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY BUT LOW LEVEL VORTEX REMAINS HOWEVER PARTIALLY  EXPOSED ON
THE EASTERN EDGE ON THE CONVECTION.
0402Z METOP-B ASCAT SWATH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED BUT ASSYMETRIC LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT ALL AROUND THE
CENTRE EXTENDING FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOWEVER SHEARED BUT AN INTENFY WINDOW IS EXPECTED
TO EXIST FROM SATURDAY TO MONDAY UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.=