1302 珊珊中心外露減弱為TD

ez51218 · 2013-2-17 17:29

JMA天氣圖- 48時間予想図　平成 25年 02月 19日 09時の予想

預估到時候就TD了！:lol

桜slime · 2013-2-18 14:24

本帖最後由桜slime 於 2013-2-18 14:25 編輯

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.3N
136.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7N 131.8E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WEAKLY DEFINED
FORMATIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION. A RECENT 180038Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED
IMPROVEMENT IN THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE, WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH
IS CREATING MODERATE LEVELS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT, IN ADDITION TO LOW
TO MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC ARE BETWEEN 28 AND
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING LLCC STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

MEDIUM了

麻友飯 · 2013-2-18 17:40

本帖最後由麻友飯於 2013-2-19 13:25 編輯

JMA 2013年2月18日0600UTC報文
----------------------------------------------------
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 05N 133E WEST SLOWLY.
JMA 升TD囉:loveliness:

jwpk9899 · 2013-2-18 19:12

菲律賓命名為Crising 預估未來將穿越民答那峨島
並且對Crising逼近發出警報
根據報文指出菲律賓請當地山區注意
預估未來時雨量可能有5-15毫米
也請漁船盡量不要出海
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 - 15 mm per hour (moderate - heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of the country and over the northern seaboard of Northern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

阿隆 · 2013-2-18 19:58

晚間這個TD主要雲系已經進入民答那峨,若依目前預測路徑中心隨後1~2天也將撞進,所以應以通過島陸後再視環流結構如何?屆時再以大氣條件來定奪究竟之後發展?(僅管現在螺旋性的確引人但底層對流依然破碎...)

但~目前在西太低緯間熱帶幅合區持續有對流爆發,也已看到部份機構預測整合後近菲東依循98W再發展增強,至少目前可預見2月下旬近赤道擾動還是可期!

hohoyin1226 · 2013-2-19 01:38

本帖最後由 hohoyin1226 於 2013-2-19 02:33 編輯

TCFA 囉
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.7N 128.6E TO 7.4N 120.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA
AT 181630Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.8N
127.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.