阿隆

因雲系龐大高低層螺旋雖仍在整合階段但~最新風速也至25kts,因前行皆是廣大洋面所以在未來2~3日還是看好TCFA:D

kbty245

感覺雛形已經出來了......能不能繼續發展下去呢......讓我們繼續看下去(個人認為有機會發展下去)

jwpk9899

評級升到MEDIUM 而且螺旋超明顯 不過對流弱了點就是了...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 91.0E,  
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF DIEGO  
GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION  
WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL  
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091216Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS  
SOME STRONGER FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 090550Z INDICATES 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS  
WRAPPING AROUND THE ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES  
AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM IS JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF NOW LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL  
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE  
AREA ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT.  
NUMERIC MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP  
THIS SYSTEM WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS  
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS  
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AND  
CONTINUED MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO  
MEDIUM.

阿隆

阿隆

30kts~看來TCFA在望了!(或許是在我們凌晨睡覺時,所以我先PO圖預告:lol)
有別於現位南太14P,目前的環流雲系已非常龐大,過年期間若有閒來這邊,歡迎不吝一起回帖討論吧:D

桑達

阿隆不久前才說TCFA在望 沒想到半小時候就TCFA了〜
WTXS21 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.9S 85.1E TO 15.8S 80.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101430Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 84.5E.  
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7S
86.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 760 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AND INCREASED CENTRAL
CONVECTION. A 101219Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
LLCC WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT. A 100638Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND AGGRESSIVE MODEL DEVELOPMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111500Z.//
NNNN

阿隆

環流過於龐大難免整合耗費時日與困難度,目前預測將偏南移動惟20S以下便是乾空氣盤踞,除非在近日內強度呈爆發足以抗衡+改變不利條件,否則仍以JTWC訂下Cat2為巔峰上限應無爭議。

阿隆