10P.Garry 中心與對流分離強度明顯減弱＊

jwpk9899 · 2013-1-20 21:41

好的 JTWC在稍早前將91P升格為10P了
另外斐濟前兩天也升格為09F囉
在此獻上一張升格的雲圖和一張用斐濟預報做出來的路徑圖上頭有標示強度(KT)

阿隆 · 2013-1-20 22:23

JTWC第1報:東行直襲薩摩亞(遭Evan重創沒多久:L),後強度上看Cat1。

jwpk9899 · 2013-1-21 14:38

斐濟命名，09F GARRY

WTPS11 NFFN 210600
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A06 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 21/0617 UTC 2013 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GARRY CENTRE 995HPA CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3S
172.8W AT 210500 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35
KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND
TRYING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT
REGION AND IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF SYSTEM BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL,
GIVING DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS YIELDING
T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 211700 UTC 11.5S 171.5W MOV E AT 06 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 220500 UTC 11.6S 170.7W MOV E AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 221700 UTC 11.6S 170.1W MOV E AT 04 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 230500 UTC 11.7S 169.5W MOV E AT 03 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE