1219 馬力斯加速往北移動將轉為溫帶氣旋

mydeardude · 2012-9-30 10:51

補上JTWC 報文

WTPN21 PGTW 300200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N 150.7E TO 19.3N 147.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 300130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 150.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 111.7E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW VORTEX HAS
EMERGED AND BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE CONSIDERABLY DEEPENED
AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS
PROGRESSION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INCLUDING A 302314Z AMSU-B PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MARGINAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010200Z. //
NNNN

abc84484422 · 2012-9-30 11:29

生成後應該會穩定往西北移動~

未來可能靠近台灣!!

秋颱本來就難以預測先等他生成先吧:))

ez51218 · 2012-9-30 12:40

CWB目前將94W、95W升為T.D
西太又恢復了熱鬧的場面
94w有可能成為今年的馬力斯　

阿隆 · 2012-9-30 12:42

blue10019 · 2012-9-30 18:05

阿隆 · 2012-9-30 19:43

午後四週較強雲系開始向中心聚合,風速29kts正常推估於24hr內將成輕颱,風場橫跨10個經度未來若整合成功,規模可能直逼今年布拉萬。

遠洋熱帶風暴路徑暫都參考先:某些機構認為之後將受杰拉華減弱成低壓槽線牽引北上,CWB一週預測認為初期受槽線北偏後,轉由大陸+西太高壓接手偏西於雙十前夕近臺。
在沒有精密大電腦過來的氣象前輩:當年常需閱兵的戒嚴年代,若有颱風可能近臺是必須直接向總統府報告,或許在二蔣時期他們經常報告,所以前輩們的經驗談----雙十前後通常要留意可能會有颱風靠近,現看到CWB的一週預測圖想起這段就與大家分享。