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kevin60518|2012-6-29 20:33
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本帖最後由 kevin60518 於 2012-6-29 20:42 編輯
WTPN22 PGTW 282300MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 2.0N 143.7E TO 6.0N 138.0EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 282230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 2.2N 143.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.3N 144.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.2N 143.3E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CONSOLIDATION OF CONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED AT THE EQUATORWARD LIMIT OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. A 281828Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS BROAD SPIRAL BAND CURVATURE DRAPED SOUTH OF THE LLCC. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A 281452Z PARTIAL PASS INDICATES A LARGE SWATH OF 20 KNOT WINDS OVER AND NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC WITH ENHANCED WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTHWEST ENGENDERED BY A BUFFER CELL LOCATED NEAR 134E ON THE EQUATOR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KNOTS) AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. EARLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARNING CRITERIA (25 KNOTS) COULD BE MET WITHIN 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ARE CURRENTLY HAVING SOME TROUBLE WITH THE DEPICTION OF THIS LLCC AND SHOW THE AREA AS ONE LARGER CIRCULATION AROUND THE MONSOON TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-29 CELSIUS), THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 292300Z.//NNNN
小可不才，稍微統整了一下
1.範圍在2.0N 143.7E 到6.0N 138.0E。中心風速15~20海哩(7.5m/s到10m/s)，未來12~24小時有發展趨勢，中心以時速8km往西朝西北西移動。
2.具有良好的螺旋雨帶、弱風切及良好的輻散有機會讓風力來到25海浬。
3.27~29的海溫也將提供良好環境。
(第二點中間我有點看不太懂，盼賜教^^)
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