簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jwpk9899|2012-3-26 19:56
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(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO RECONSOLIDATE NEAR 9.8N
115.6E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH OF BRUNEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS IS
BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. A STRONG NORTHEAST MONSOON SURGE IS
HELPING TO SPIN UP THE LLCC BY PROVIDING STRONG WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN BUILDING OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS, AND A 252242Z CORIOLIS 37H MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS
AREA IS NEARLY UNDER A RIDGE AXIS, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES
ARE MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS). THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THIS
REGION IS A FAVORABLE 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
JTWC重新評LOW！
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