簽到天數: 971 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
|
jwpk9899|2012-2-19 08:47
|
顯示全部樓層
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N 112.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHEARED CONVECTION LOCATED 60 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST. A 182036Z SSMI MICROWAVE PASS SUPPORTS THE WELL DEFINED
LLCC AND LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINAL BETWEEN 26 AND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) (15 TO 20 KNOTS) OVER THE AREA. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LLCC VWS INCREASES TO GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS AND HAS CAUSED
CONVECTION TO REMAIN SHEARED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE
MODERATE TO HIGH VWS AND MARGINAL SSTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.
重評medium!! |
|
