c789654

老J第五報上看95KTS
REMARKS:270300Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 110.2E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 09S HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH DECREASED EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (NOW 10-20 KNOTS). A 270024Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TC 09S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE DYNAMIC MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE JGSM TRACKER INDICATING LANDFALL EAST OF LEARMONTH WHILE THE GFDN, ECMWF, GFS AND NOGAPS TRACKERS SHOW A TRACK WEST OF LEARMONTH. OVERALL THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND TRACK SLOWLY DUE TO A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) RESULTING FROM THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF, NOGAPS, GFDN AND GFS SOLUTIONS WITH A TRACK WEST OF LEARMONTH AND A SIGNIFICANT SLOW-DOWN IN TRACK SPEEDS OR PERHAPS A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 DUE TO THE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT SHOULD STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL STR AND VWS RELAXES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

c789654

增強為55KTS
可能不登陸澳洲
REMARKS:280300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 110.9E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (IGGY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NMNORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTERS OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280012Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP TIGHTLY CURVED SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 271342Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 30-KNOT WINDS ALREADY REACHING THE UPPER NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, OTHER RECENT SSMIS IMAGES (272202Z AND 272154Z) SUGGEST THAT TC 09S MAY BE SLOWING DOWN AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) WHICH IS CENTERED FAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGREEABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THERE IS AN ESTIMATED 10-15 KNOTS OF EASTERLY VWS OVER THE LLCC WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC IGGY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN AS THE NER RECEDES AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA ASSUMES STEERING AFTER TAU 48. THIS SHOULD PROPEL THE SYSTEM TO TRACK ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TC 09S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS DECREASES. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN IT MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MAIN GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS A SLOW RE-CURVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO FAVOR A MAINTAINED INTENSITY AFTER THE TURN DUE TO A MORE SOUTHWARDS TRACK IN THE LATER TAUS 96-120, THEREFORE KEEPING THE LLCC IN MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (FUNSO) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

25044

順便附上一張衛星雲圖：

雲係很扎實，預估未來會繼續增強！

再附上一張路徑圖：

預估顛峰強度可達95kts，未來可能會非常強！

jwpk9899

C1了(65KTS)  路徑比樓上那篇時更西了   強度下調至80KTS(C1上限)

jwpk9899

減弱了!!巔峰65KTS    不過目前強度還是有點飄盪  凌晨強度似乎一度掉到50KTS
後來又上升到55KTS  不過應該就這樣了 jtwc已經認為強度就這樣 一路下跌 積弱不振
順便一提  他的對流也減弱了

jwpk9899

看來09S 出現了雲捲風眼了(應該是吧)

jwpk9899

昨天出現了個破風眼  今天......變成了大眼颱了....

jwpk9899

哀...我只能說 這IGGY真是''很難侍候''(台)  一整天來 50KTS→65KTS 一直升升降降的......
現在 他已經增強回65KTS(Cat.1)了 預計未來轉向登陸澳洲西岸 強度是越靠近 越弱!!

------------------------先不重新發帖了 直接編輯好了------------------------

現在用全球的雲圖就能直接看到IGGY的風眼!!