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c789654|2012-1-26 21:38
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顯示全部樓層
96~120小時後將轉化成溫低
REMARKS:260900Z POSITION NEAR 24.2S 39.2E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (FUNSO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH A 25-NM EYE, HOWEVER THE HORIZONTAL EXTENT HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH DECREASING OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IMPINGING ON THE OUTFLOW. DESIPITE THIS, TC 08S STILL HAS EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. BASED ON A 260543Z SSMIS IMAGE, THE SYSTEM IS STILL GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS CLEARLY DEPICTED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 100 KNOTS AND WAS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 08S IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO RE-CURVE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TO ACCELERATE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE DEGRADED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 48 AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT THIS TIME, TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT NEAR TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OUTLIER BEING GFS WHICH DEPICTS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING IT TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARDLY IN THE EARLY TAUS. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN AND TO THE EAST OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE GFS MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (IGGY) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//NNNN
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