king111807

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：98 W
擾動編號日期：2026 年 05 月 17 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2026 年 05 月 20 日 08 時
98W.INVEST.15kts-0mb-20.3N-130.3E

king111807

JTWC判定副熱帶低壓

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.7N
130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 372 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE, GENERALLY
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES.
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND
SITUATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE 170030Z ASCAT-B AND
171330Z OSCAT-3 PASSES REVEALED AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD WITH 20-25 KNOT
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 35KTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE. MODELS KEEP 98W UNDER THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS, AFTER WHICH TIME A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
AND INTRODUCE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY DRY AIR WILL ENVELOPE
THE CIRCULATION. WHILE THE DISTURBANCE WILL REGAIN TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS, THE DISTURBANCE IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.   
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

king111807

【擾動發展，移向西日本】
目前在日本琉球南方海域
有一個熱帶擾動「９８Ｗ」活動中
預計今、明兩天將往東北移動
朝九州、四國一帶接近。

受到其水氣影響
日本西部天氣將逐漸轉趨不穩定
局部地區可能出現短暫陣雨或雷雨。

另外，週四(21)還有一道鋒面將通過
屆時降雨範圍將擴大至日本全境。

提醒本週前往日本旅遊、出差的朋友
記得多留意當地最新天氣資訊。