king111807

FMS升格澳式C2

WTPS11 NFFN 280000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A07 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 280149 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL CENTRE 983HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.7S 170.6E AT 280000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI EIR/VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 14 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC AND SECONDARY
WHITE BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF
LOW SHEAR, STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO STRONG VORTICITY AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST IS AROUND 27 DEGREE CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM
IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON CURVED PATTERN WITH 0.6-0.8 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL WITH WHITE
BAND, RESULTING IN DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET THUS,
YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST, IT IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTs SOUTH OF 25S AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 21.9S 173.2E MOV ESE AT 14 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 24.2S 176.8E MOV ESE AT 17 KT WITH 60
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 27.6S 178.7W MOV SE AT 20 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 31.6S 173.1W MOV SE AT 23 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 280800UTC.

king111807

JTWC降格TS

WTPS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 175.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 175.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 25.1S 179.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 29.2S 175.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 22.9S 176.1E.
28FEB26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304
NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 281800Z IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC發布FW

WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL) WARNING NR 011   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010600Z --- NEAR 25.7S 179.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 179.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 29.7S 175.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 179.5W.
01MAR26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458
NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS ELONGATED AND HEAVILY SHEARED SYSTEM, WITH MAJORITY OF
THE REMAINING CONVECTION LOCATED POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE
ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS UNDERGOING ITS SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT),
WITH WARM CORE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CONTAINED ONLY NEAR SURFACE,
INDICATING FRONTOGENESIS. COLD ANOMALY IS PRESENT IN WITHIN THE
UPPER-LEVELS. THE LOCATION OF TC 23P IS POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS AND THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND RAPIDLY AND
DRASTICALLY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES
THE TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, IT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
WIND SPEEDS WELL ABOVE GALE FORCE (50 KTS). THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 010600Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 18 FEET.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC判定為副熱帶風暴

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (23P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 28.8S
176.3E, APPROXIMATELY 467 NM SOUTH OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING
BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 011749Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), PARTIALLY
OBSCURED BY UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER, WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES SHEARED SOUTHWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE, WITH
COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (25-26C), HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30+
KNOTS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SUBTROPICAL STORM 23P WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR REGAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 42 TO 48 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 984 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS,
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT
OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.