14S.Dudzai 快速增強巔峰曾達強烈熱帶氣旋逐漸南下

king111807 · 2026-1-14 12:38

JTWC降格C1

WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 77.6E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 77.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 17.2S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 17.2S 76.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 17.2S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 17.1S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.7S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.5S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.5S 63.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 77.5E.
13JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 676
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131800Z IS 977 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z.
//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-1-15 05:25

MFR降格強烈熱帶風暴

WTIO30 FMEE 140642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/6/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 77.2 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/14 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 270 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.4 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.5 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 325 SW: 295 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 260 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5 CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, DUDZAI HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE CONFIGURATION ON
INFRARED IMAGERY WITH RELATIVELY WARM PEAKS. HOWEVER, THE EYE IS NOW
MORE CLEARLY VISIBLE, AS CONFIRMED BY THE F16 MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM
0130 AT 85 GHZ. THE SYSTEM THEREFORE APPEARS TO BE IN A PHASE OF
REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THE 0023Z SAR AND 0324Z ASCAT PASSES ESTIMATE
WINDS OF AROUND 55 KT. DUDZAI HAS THEREFORE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SINCE 00 UTC. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES REMAIN
CLOSE TO 4.5. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE RECENT REINTENSIFICATION, DUZAI
REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM WINDS
REESTIMATED AT 60KT.

REGARDING THE TRAJECTORY, DUDZAI HAS BEGUN ITS GRADUAL ACCELERATION
WESTWARD IN RELATION WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, DUE TO A
WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ITS SWELLING
TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD. SPREAD
AMONG NUMERICAL MODELS DECREASED BUT REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AT LONGER
RANGE. IN THIS UNCERTAIN CONTEXT, OUR TRAJECTORY FORECAST FOLLOWS A
CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THE ENSEMBLE
AVERAGES, NOTABLY AI.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARMER
SURFACE WATERS AS IT ACCELERATES. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REINTENSIFY AND
RETURN TO THE STAGE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, THE
WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WEAKENING. HOWEVER, ITS EXTENT WILL DEPEND IN PARTICULAR ON THE
SYSTEM'S TRAJECTORY. AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

king111807 · 2026-1-15 16:22

MFR升格熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 141909 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2 S / 75.9 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1012 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/15 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2026/01/15 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 280 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 140 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/16 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 285 SW: 270 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2026/01/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 270 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65

60H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

72H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 280 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100

120H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 175 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CONFIGURATION IN THE CENTRE OF THE STORM
HAS REMAINED THE SAME, WITH THE CENTRE MOVING SLIGHTLY MORE TOWARDS
THE CENTRE, ACCORDING TO DATA FROM SENTINEL1A AT 1323UTC AND METOP-3
AT 1636UTC. IN THE LAST FEW MOMENTS, AN EYE SEEMS TO BE REAPPEARING.
IN THIS CONTEXT, A DVORAK ANALYSIS WITH A CDO OF 4.5 CAN BE MADE,
ALLOWING DUDZAI TO RETURN TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS WITH AVERAGE
WINDS OF 65KT. THIS ANALYSIS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE OTHER SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES, BUT SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR DUDZAI TO
REINTENSIFY, WHICH SEEMS TO BE REAPPEARING IN THE LATEST DATA,
VALIDATED BY THE LATEST RCM3 DATA.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: DUDZAI IS FOLLOWING A WESTERLY TRACK
IN LINE WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE
RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST. THIS SCENARIO IS RELATIVELY IN LINE WITH ALL
MODELS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME DISPERSION REGARDING THE SPEED
OF MOVEMENT. AT THE END OF THE WEEK, IN CONNECTION WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND ITS EXPANSION TO THE
EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTH-WEST. THE RSMC
FORECAST OPTED FOR A SCENARIO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST GUIDANCES AVAILABLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
DISPERSION IS DOWN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ANALYSIS TIME, INDICATING
FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR RODRIGUES BY SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY RETURNING TO A MORE
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND GREATER
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IN CONNECTION WITH ITS MOVEMENT. IT SHOULD
THEREFORE CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM FRIDAY
ONWARDS, THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND LEAD TO
A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER, THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD
CAUSE IT TO REACT MORE QUICKLY TO THIS SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT CONTINUED
WEAKENING REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FROM FRIDAY ONWARDS, WITH
THE SYSTEM AT THE STAGE OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LESS AS IT
PASSES CLOSEST TO RODRIGUES.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.=

king111807 · 2026-1-15 16:28

JTWC升格C2

WTXS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 74.3E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 74.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.9S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.8S 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.1S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.8S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.7S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 21.4S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.4S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 73.9E.
15JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 609
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 150600Z IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z AND 160900Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-1-17 14:30

MFR升格強烈熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 151328
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/6/20252026
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 73.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 195 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 80 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/16 00 UTC: 16.8 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 345 SW: 305 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

24H: 2026/01/16 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 315 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2026/01/17 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2026/01/17 12 UTC: 18.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 305 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 55
60H: 2026/01/18 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 335 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 205 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

72H: 2026/01/18 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/19 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/20 12 UTC: 26.0 S / 57.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE PATTERN HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED AND HAS
EVEN BECOME BETTER DEFINED INDICATING A CLEAR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, NOTABLY AN EFFECTIVE POLAR
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK EYE ANALYSES SUGGEST A
DT OF 5.5, CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUCH AS THE
DPRINT, EQUIVALENT TO A MAXIMUM SPEED OF 90KT. DUDZAI IS THEREFORE BACK
AGAIN TO THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. THE AMSR2 IMAGE FROM
GCOM-W AT 0844UTC SHOWS A SOLID EYE WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, INDICATING WEAK NORTHWEST SHEAR.

REGARDING THE TRACK, DUDZAI CONTINUES ITS PATH WESTWARD OR EVEN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN CONNECTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE END OF THE
WEEK, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THIS
RIDGE AND ITS EXPANSION TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. AT THIS STAGE, THE EUROPEAN
DETERMINISTIC MODEL IFS IS ISOLATED FROM ITS ENSEMBLE AND THE REST OF
THE MODELS WITH A SCENARIO MOVING MORE WESTWARD, WHILE THE AMERICAN
GFS IS ISOLATED TOWARDS THE SOUTH. OUR RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE AVERAGES AS WELL AS THE AI ENSEMBLE
MODELS. AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK, DUDZAI WILL CONTINUE HEADING
SOUTHWEST, WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MASCARENES, WITH THE VAST
MAJORITY OF FORECASTS AGREEING ON THIS POINT.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL
TOMORROW, WITH WESTERN SECTOR SHEARING THAT WILL STABILISE THE
SYSTEM'S INTENSITY BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN DURING THE DAY. THE SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM COULD CAUSE IT TO RESPOND QUICKLY TO THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
WITH A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY. ON SUNDAY, A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS
POSSIBLE, WHICH SHOULD MODERATE THE DECREASE IN INTENSITY. EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE SOUTH OF THE
MASCARENES, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO RE-INTENSIFY WILL BE
LOWER GIVEN THE COOLER OCEAN WATERS. THE DISPERSION OF INTENSITY
FORECASTS FOR THE SYSTEM RELATIVE TO THIS TRACK IS NOW LOW, BUT A
MINORITY TRACK FURTHER NORTHWEST OR SOUTHEAST COULD EXTEND THE
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

NO IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.

king111807 · 2026-1-17 14:33

JTWC升格C4

WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 72.7E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 72.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 16.8S 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.0S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 17.7S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.8S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.0S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 23.0S 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 26.4S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 72.4E.15JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 588 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151800Z IS 942 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z AND
162100Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-1-17 14:36

JTWC降格C3

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 70.4E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 70.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.5S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 18.3S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.3S 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.3S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 21.7S 60.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.9S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 31.9S 56.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 70.0E.
16JAN26. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (DUDZAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 607
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 161200Z IS 951 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2026-1-17 14:38

MFR降格熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 161922 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/6/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 6 (DUDZAI)

2.A POSITION 2026/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.1 S / 69.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 230 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 55 SW: 80 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/01/17 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 260 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 0

24H: 2026/01/17 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 67.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 335 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 0

36H: 2026/01/18 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

48H: 2026/01/18 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 55

60H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 280 SW: 230 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

72H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.8 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 305 SW: 240 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 305 SW: 220 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 34.3 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 325 SW: 195 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DUDZAI HAS MAINTAINED A
CLOUDY EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN, WITH VERY INTENSE CONVECTION AND
FREQUENT ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTRE. THIS CENTRE WAS TRACKED
USING SAR IMAGES FROM 1352Z, ASCAT-B AND C FROM 1653Z AND 1732Z. THE
LAST TWO SWATH ALSO MEASURED WINDS OF 70KT. DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS BASED ON THE DT AND THEN THE MET/PT GIVES A FINAL T NUMBER
OF 4.0 AND A CI OF 5.0-. AS CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AGAIN AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT, WE PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE LATEST ASCAT MEASUREMENTS. IT IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED
AT 75 KT AT 18UTC.

AFTER FOLLOWING A WESTERLY DIRRECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS, THE LAST TWO
ASCAT INDICATE THAT IT BEGAN TO CURVE ITS TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS
DIRECTION IS STEERED BY A RIDGE RIDGE TEMPORARILY STRENGTHENING EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, DUDZAI'S TRACK SHOULD SHIFT
WEST-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY, REMAINING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW-TO-MID
TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. DUDZAI IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE A
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OUR RSMC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE
TO AMERICAN AND EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE AVERAGES AS WELL AS AI ENSEMBLE
MODELS. MOST MEMBERS OF THE ENSEMBLE MODELS CONVERGE, WHICH
INCREASES THE RELIABILITY OF THE FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL
TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASING WEST-TO-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH UNTIL SUNDAY. SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TEMPORARILY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT
WINDOW OF REINTENSIFICATION. FROM WEDNESDAY, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BEFORE MERGING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.

IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES : VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH 4M WAVES BETWEEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.=