09S.Grant 環流小巧快速增強風眼開啟升格強烈熱帶氣旋

king111807 · 2025-12-28 15:41

Grant離開BoM責任範圍，改由MFR接續發報

WTIO30 FMEE 270654
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20252026
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 89.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/27 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 87.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2025/12/28 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 85.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2025/12/28 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 83.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2025/12/29 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/29 18 UTC: 13.9 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/30 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND GRANT HAS
CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN MORE SYMMETRICALLY AROUND THE CENTER. ON THE
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES, THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE ARE SOMETIMES
VISIBLE. THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES (WSFM 2353Z, F16 0017Z, METOP01
0250Z, AND AWS 0351Z) SEEM TO CONFIRM THE FORMATION OF AN EYE IN THE
89GHZ CHANNEL. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST BOM ANALYSES AND
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES (3.5/4.0), THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
ANALYSED AT 55KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SPREAD REMAINS VERY LOW AMONG THE
MAIN MODELS. BEYOND THAT, THE PRESENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
GRANT, AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING
FLOW, MAKE THE TRACK FORECAST MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH GRANT WAS
SUFFERING FROM SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING FOR
AN INTENSIFICATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
GRANT'S DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, IT SHOULD REACH
TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN, LEADING TO A WEAKENING.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

king111807 · 2025-12-28 15:50

JTWC升格C1

WTXS32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 86.7E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 86.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.8S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 13.4S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.8S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.1S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.7S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.2S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.1S 68.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 86.3E.
28DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 896
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 280000Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2025-12-28 16:45

MFR升格熱帶氣旋

WTIO30 FMEE 280636
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20252026
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT)

2.A POSITION 2025/12/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 85.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 45
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 50 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/12/28 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 83.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

24H: 2025/12/29 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

36H: 2025/12/29 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2025/12/30 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/12/30 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/12/31 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/01/01 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 230 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 0

120H: 2026/01/02 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, GRANT'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE
WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL AND AN EYE FEATURE HAS
BECOME APPARENT, PARTICULARLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
CERTAINLY FAVORED BY DECREASING WIND SHEAR. THE GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE
IS ALSO REFLECTED BY A NICE CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0014Z SSMIS-F17 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO
SHOWS A CLEAR IMPROVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE WITH THE EARLY
STAGES OF AN EYEWALL. A 2356Z SAR RCM-2 PASS MEASURED WINDS UP TO 83
KT (1-MIN), SUGGESTING THAT GRANT WAS ALREADY AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE AT 00UTC (THE 00UTC ANALYSIS IN THE BEST-TRACK WILL BE
CORRECTED AFTERHAND TO 65 KT 10-MIN). A 0312Z ASCAT-C PASS SEEMS TO
INDICATE WEAKER WINDS, BUT THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
LEADS TO A SIGNIFICANT UNDERESTIMATION OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS HAS BEEN RAISED TO 4.5, REFLECTING THE
APPEARANCE OF AN EYE CONFIGURATION IN VISIBLE IMAGES AND IMPROVEMENTS
IN STRUCTURE COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS
ESTIMATED AT 70 KT AT 06UTC, BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE 00Z ESTIMATED
INTENSITY AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE CONTINUED STRUCTURAL
IMPROVEMENT ON THE LATEST IMAGES.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, GRANT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, DRIVEN BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
ITS SOUTH TO SOUTH-EAST. UNTIL WEDNESDAY, SPREAD REMAINS VERY LOW
AMONG THE MAIN MODELS. BEYOND THAT, THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH
SOUTHWEST OF GRANT AS WELL AS A POSSIBLE CHANGE IN THE LEVEL OF THE
STEERING FLOW MAKE THE TRACK FORECAST MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DECREASING NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD
ENABLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (OCEANIC
POTENTIAL, SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE) SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
GRANT'S DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TUESDAY. IN PARTICULAR, INCREASING UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN PHASE WITH THE SYSTEM'S TRACKING OVER AN AREA OF VERY
WARM WATERS (SST NEAR 29C, HIGH TCHP VALUES) BY MONDAY, IN
COMBINATION WITH GRANT'S SMALL SIZE, SHOULD FAVOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION UP TO INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BY MONDAY. THIS
FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN THOUGH, DUE TO GRANT'S SMALL SIZE. IN THE
LONGER TERM, THE DEEP NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN AND BECOME MORE IMPACTFUL AS THE SYSTEM'S MOVEMENT
SLOWS DOWN, LEADING TO DRY AIR DISRUPTIONS AND MAKING GRANT WEAKEN
BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE FROM THURSDAY ONWARDS.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.=

king111807 · 2025-12-29 15:39

JTWC升格C3

WTXS32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 13.5S 82.5E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 82.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 13.9S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.2S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.4S 75.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.7S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.0S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.7S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.2S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 82.0E.
29DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 704
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 290000Z IS 957 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z AND 300300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2025-12-29 15:52

MFR升格強烈熱帶氣旋

WTIO20 FMEE 290614
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 29/12/2025
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/5 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 29/12/2025 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (GRANT) 950 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.7 S / 81.5 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/105 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 10 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 15 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 15 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 20 NM IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 30 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 35
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 55 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM
IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2025/12/29 AT 18 UTC:
14.0 S / 79.4 E, MAX WIND = 110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 85 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 55 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 15 NM

24H, VALID 2025/12/30 AT 06 UTC:
14.1 S / 77.0 E, MAX WIND = 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 65 NM SE: 90 NM SW: 80 NM NW: 55 NM
34 KT NE: 45 NM SE: 50 NM SW: 45 NM NW: 40 NM
48 KT NE: 30 NM SE: 30 NM SW: 35 NM NW: 30 NM
64 KT NE: 25 NM SE: 25 NM SW: 25 NM NW: 20 NM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

蜜露 · 2025-12-29 16:47

20251228_235800_SH092026_ssmis_F17_91H_103kts_100p00_res1p0-cr100-arH91-bgInfrar.jpg

格蘭特離開了BOM澳洲管轄進入MFR法國管轄西南印度洋.

強度是給100kts JTWC是105Kts

RCM2_SHUB_2025_12_29_00_04_37_0820281877_082.15E_13.28S_VH_C-12_MERGED01_wind.png

RCM2_SHUB_2025_12_29_00_04_37_0820281877_082.15E_13.28S_VH_C-12_MERGED01_RadialW.png

king111807 · 2025-12-29 23:40

JTWC升格C4

WTXS32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 80.5E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
   POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 80.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 14.0S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.3S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.6S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 14.9S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.9S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 14.2S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.8S 65.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 80.0E. 29DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
(GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 616 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 291200Z IS 944 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z AND 301500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

king111807 · 2025-12-30 12:49

JTWC降格C3

WTXS32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 78.3E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.5S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.7S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.1S 72.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.1S 70.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.9S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.3S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 13.7S 64.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 77.7E.
30DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (GRANT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 551
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 300000Z IS 955 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
301500Z AND 310300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (HAYLEY) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN