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c789654|2011-10-4 05:33
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WTPN33 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (NALGAE) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 17.8N 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 112.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.0N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.1N 109.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.1N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.9N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.9N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 111.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINED TO THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 031800Z AMSU
89 GHZ IMAGE ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED IR WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS DUE TO THE MAINTAINED
STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). TS 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO CONTINUED
MODERATE EASTERLY VWS AND LAND INTERACTION BY TAU 24 AS NALGAE
SKIRTS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN. TS 22W WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF TONKIN AS IT EVENTUALLY MAKES
LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM AFTER TAU 48 WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
DISSIPATE OVERLAND BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR WBAR, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY TRACKS THE
SYSTEM NORTHWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ERROR.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
//
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