1119 奈格登陸海南島強度續減

kiki3354347 · 2011-9-27 06:11

一夜之間 99W 長大摟!!!
日本GW 台灣也說四、熱帶性低氣壓１００４百帕，在北緯１７．５度，東
經１３８．５度，即在關島西北方海面，向西緩慢移動，有發
展為輕度颱風的趨勢

就繼續看看後續會有什麼發展摟?!
目前他的環境都OK 只是幅散較差!!

howard2639 · 2011-9-27 06:57

如果以GFS路徑的話他會線經過菲律賓西方海面後有水氣支持再增強
之後再轉為東北打到台灣上來!!!但是時間仍還很久~

s813141 · 2011-9-27 14:28

本帖最後由 s813141 於 2011-9-27 14:30 編輯

TCFA了

WTPN23 PGTW 270600MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5N 138.4E TO 22.1N 135.8EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-AGERY AT 270530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 18.6N 138.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 139.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. RECENT MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CURVED BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. A 262059Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), BUT HAS FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO THE EAST (165E) OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 280600Z.//NNNN

fdisk222 · 2011-9-27 15:06

本帖最後由 fdisk222 於 2011-9-27 15:07 編輯

老J在度跳評一次~~今年真的好有趣;P
目前來看這TD對台灣威脅蠻大的~
接力讓北台灣天氣一直潮濕~

ktf · 2011-9-27 15:31

本帖最後由 ktf 於 2011-9-27 16:37 編輯

這22w發展頗快的原因是北側的短波槽帶來不錯的高空輻散加上系統小
到現在型態已經不差,發展的不利因素是西北側有一小塊乾區
還有南側的對流雲也有點阻礙

未來隨著尼莎更往海南島去後,發展環境因該會更好點

路徑上ec認為下波冷空氣比較屬於滲透,不是完全南衝
所以一直會有弱脊場在台灣,所以22w一路沿著高壓脊
在20N一帶西移,等到後來被冷高壓接手導引壓入南海轉西南西
最後靠近越南,這路徑的話共扮就來了

不過是否如此有待觀察,若下波還是衝的比預期南副高還是可能直接斷裂22w在冷高壓導引前就轉向

老j第一報看法和EC差不多

fdisk222 · 2011-9-27 17:21

本帖最後由 fdisk222 於 2011-9-27 17:22 編輯

老j第一報出了~通常第一報不是很準~
強度方面就可以參考一下~第一報最高
就給到90kts 相當不錯;P
等後面幾報出吧~~

Typhoon · 2011-9-27 17:59

本帖最後由 Typhoon 於 2011-9-27 18:20 編輯

22W要是在沿途偏北一些往西靠近台灣就會有點像2003年九月初的中度颱風杜鵑侵襲台灣南部的路徑一樣,
由於颱風本身有偏北向量外加後期颱風強度持續增強也會使得偏北的情形有可能更明顯些,
此外萬一在進入巴士海峽或者南海後被槽線給勾上來那就有可能直接轉往台灣方向而來,
所以後期對於這颱風的後續發展值得留意!