TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 09N 155E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WTPN21 PGTW 061100MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN095 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.7N 156.1E TO 9.6N 153.7EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 13 TO 17 KNOTS. METSATIMAGERY AT 060600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 8.8N 155.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 156.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 155.9E, APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 060739Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FORMATIVE SPIRAL BANDS OF DEP CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 98W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO WARM (30C) SST, GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHILE IT TRACKS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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