簽到天數: 3291 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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t02436|2023-7-14 07:54
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(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.3N 126.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.1E, APPROXIMATELY 142 NM
NORTH OF MANILLA, PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION,GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE
WINDS OVER THE EASTERNPERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
EXCEEDING 400NM IN DIAMETER WITH DISORGANIZED, BUILDING CONVECTION
OVER THE LLCC. A 131950Z SSMIS 89\37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE A
BROAD, BUILDING, WRAPPING CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
DIFFLUENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY ENHANCED BY DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. THERE IS LOW (5-15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT AND WARM 30-31C SST.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
AND STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. NOW THAT THE
MONSOON CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF LUZON,
TWO DISTINCT LOW PRESSURE REGIONS ARE EVIDENT. ONE TO THE EAST AND THE
OTHER TO THE WEST OF LUZON. GFS, ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES TOGETHER
WITH NVGM ALL INDICATE THE CIRCULATION THAT DEEPENS TO THE WEST OF
LUZON IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL EMERGE THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET
WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL
WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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