(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.2N
132.4E, APPROXIMATELY 502 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA,
JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 172252 GMI 89
GHZ IMAGE SHOW SHALLOW AND DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION THAT IS
SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A WEAK, RAGGED, AND FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28C-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET
BY MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1012 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.8N 132.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 130.8E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH 5-10KT VWS, STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A 190500Z SHIP
OBSERVATION LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST REPORTS 30KT
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND PRESSURE OF 1008.5MB. NUMERICAL MODEL DATA
DISCLOSES SIMILAR AGREEMENT WITH PRESSURE, WINDS, AND A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
WTPN21 PGTW 191430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.9N 130.7E TO 20.1N 123.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.9N 130.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.0N 130.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 130.7E, APPROXIMATELY 535
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 190932Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC WITH
FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A
191205Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20 KT
WINDS TO THE EAST AND 20-25KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADJACENT NORTHEAST COLD SURGE. ADDITIONALLY, A
191000Z SHIP REPORT 150 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST REPORTS 24 KT WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
INTENSIFICATION AS SHOWN BY 10-15KT VWS, ROBUST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
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