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霧峰追風者|2022-8-22 10:14
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JTWC 23z評級Low。(2)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.3N 151.4E APPROXIMATELY 555 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211909Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ITS MAIN CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC FEATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) SHEAR OFFSET BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003MB.
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