周子堯@FB

基本資料  
編號　　　　：99 E
擾動編號日期：2022 年 08 月 05 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2022 年 08 月 11 日 20 時
99E.INVEST-20220418-30kts-1007mb-10.5N-95.0W

NHC:70%

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of
the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the weekend and into early next week, remaining
well offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

周子堯@FB

JTWC 04/2030Z發布TCFA

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 94.6W TO 13.4N 102.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 95.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.2N 94.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 95.0W, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH
OF SALINA CRUZ, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
BROAD CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF A SHARP TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. A 041530Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 18-23 KNOT WINDS ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE VWS AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
HIGH.

周子堯@FB

升格09E穩定西行

"20220806.1400.goes-16.vis.2km.09E.NINE.30kts.1006mb.14.1N.105.3W.