周子堯@FB

基本資料  
編號　　　　：02 E
擾動編號日期：2022 年 06 月 11 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2022 年 06 月 23 日 14 時
92E.INVEST.15kts-1008mb-13.4N-95.2W


  NHC:30%  

1. Off the coast of southwestern Mexico:
Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure area located a
couple hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become
a little better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for continued gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next
week while the system meanders off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

t02436

命名Blas，上望70節。

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 141458
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone southwest of
Mexico continues to become better organized, with plenty of banding
in the eastern semicircle and increased central deep convection.  
Dvorak estmates have increased to 35-45 kt, and the initial wind
speed is raised to 40 kt, making this system the second tropical
storm of the season.

The environment near Blas looks conducive for further
intensification during the next couple of days, with very warm
waters and generally light shear.  However, increased northeasterly
shear is likely to begin on Thursday due to a building upper-level
anticyclone over Mexico.  Model guidance is higher than the last
cycle, mostly due to the initial wind speed, and the NHC intensity
forecast matches that trend.  Weakening should commence by the end
of the week due to stronger shear and cooler waters.

Blas is drifting northward, caught in an area of light steering
beneath a distant mid-tropospheric low over northern Mexico.  The
tropical cyclone should move little today and then start moving to
the west-northwest at a faster pace due to the low moving out and a
ridge building over Mexico.  This motion should take the system
gradually away from southwestern Mexico later in the week.  Similar
to the last cycle, although there is some spread in the models,
especially in terms of forward speed, they generally agree on the
overall scenario. This track forecast lies near the various
consensus aids, a bit north of the last NHC track forecast.

Even though the system is forecast to remain well off the coast of
Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 13.9N 102.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  15/0000Z 14.2N 102.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  15/1200Z 14.6N 102.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  16/0000Z 14.9N 103.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  16/1200Z 15.4N 104.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
60H  17/0000Z 16.0N 106.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  17/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Bucci