(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5S
93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 15 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BOMPAKA ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050027 SSMIS
91 GHZ IMAGE REVEAL DEEP BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND
A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92B
WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AND
GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
IMD编号BoB 03
A Low Pressure Area lies over South Andaman Sea & adjoining Southeast Bay
of Bengal at 0830 hours IST of today, the 6th May, 2022.
It is very likely to move northwestwards and intensify into a Depression over
southeast Bay of Bengal by 7th May evening and into a Cyclonic Storm over
eastcentral Bay of Bengal by 8th May evening. It is very likely to continue to move
northwestwards and reach westcentral and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off North
Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts on 10th May.
The Deep Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal moved westnorthwestwards with a speed of 16 kmph during past 6 hours, intensified into a
cyclonic storm ‘Asani’ (pronounced as Asani) and lay centered at 0530 hours IST
of today, the 08th May, over Southeast Bay of Bengal near latitude 11.2°N and longitude
89.3°E, about 450 km west-northwest of Car Nicobar (Nicobar Islands), 380 km west of
Port Blair (Andaman Islands), 970 km southeast of Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh)
and 1030 km south-southeast of Puri (Odisha).
It is very likely to move northwestwards and intensify further into a Severe
Cyclonic Storm over east central Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours. It is very likely to
continue to move northwestwards till 10th May evening and reach Westcentral and
adjoining Northwest Bay of Bengal off North Andhra Pradesh & Odisha coasts.
Thereafter, it is very likely to recurve north-northeastwards and move towards
Northwest Bay of Bengal off Odisha coast.
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