0908morakot

  基本資料  
編號               ：96 S
擾動編號日期 ：2022 年 01 月 23 日 09 時
撤編日期        ：2022 年 01 月 00 日 00 時
96S INVEST 220123 0000 8.0S 86.0E SHEM 20 1004

t02436

評級Low

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.5S 48.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.6S
89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 493NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231226Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD
LLC. A 230349Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS SHARP TROUGHING WITH 15-20KT
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA.  ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY FAIR
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OF
INVEST 96S WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.2S 89.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 460NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) TO THE NORTH OF 96S AND MODERATE TO WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) VWS TO
THE SOUTH. THE STRONG VWS IS BEING OFFSET BY FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW,
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS AS 96S MOVES INTO MORE FAVORABLE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

dom

命名Batsirai後快速增強，MFR12Z評定十分鐘90節，JTWC分析T5.0。

FKIO20 FMEE 271231
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20220127/1231Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: BATSIRAI
ADVISORY NR: 2022/02
OBS PSN: 27/1200Z S1755 E07943
CB: WI 150NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: WSW 22KT
INTST CHANGE: INTSF
C: 968HPA
MAX WIND: 90KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 27/1800Z S1833 E07807
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 88KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 28/0000Z S1907 E07634
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 85KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 28/0600Z S1937 E07508
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 68KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 28/1200Z S2002 E07357
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 50KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20220127/1800Z=

TPXS11 PGTW 271232

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI)

B. 27/1145Z

C. 17.96S

D. 79.66E

E. TWO/GOES-IO

F. T5.0/5.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS
AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET IS 3.5. PT IS 4.5. DBO
DT. CONSTRAINTS BROKEN WITH DT INCREASE BY GREATER THAN 2.5 IN 24
HOURS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HEINS

入門颱風愛好者

底層風眼重新出現，準備開啟高層風眼迎接二顛！

周子堯@FB

留尼旺群島局部地區降下超過1200mm雨量，預估未來將以C3強度，直撲馬國

dom

判定以C3強度登陸馬達加斯加，Mananjary(5m)國際交換站於15Z亦錄得十分鐘風速90節。