老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：94 B
擾動編號日期 ：2021 年 12 月 17 日 04 時
撤編日期        ：2021 年 12 月 21 日 20 時
94B.INVEST.15kts.997mb.5N.86E

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.4N
87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 472 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 152232Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).  ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
INVEST 94B WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD MYANMAR WITHIN
THE NEXT 48-72HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

老農民版夜神月

IMD長期展望(72~120hours)為Low
47_ed02cb_Tropical Weather Outlook based on 0300 UTCof 17.12.2021.pdf (797.97 KB, 下載次數: 0)

2021-12-18 00:42 上傳

點擊文件名下載附件

老農民版夜神月

JTWC已無對其評級

ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
181800Z-191800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.      
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8N
93.7E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD DEEP CONVECTION
OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS
25 TO 30 KT WINDS SURROUNDING A LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY
HIGH (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT 94B WILL HAVE A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE NORTH-WESTERN
TIP OF SUMATRA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格TD

IO, 94, 2021121912, , BEST, 0, 48N, 937E, 25, 1008, TD

老農民版夜神月

JTWC將定強再提升至30節

94B INVEST 211220 1200 5.5N 95.0E IO 30 1006

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級提升至Medium

ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZDEC2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.8N 93.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 96.0E, APPROXIMATELY 181 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PHUKET, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS GENERALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
94B WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST WHILE REMAINING BELOW WARNING CRITERIA
AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SUMATRA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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