老農民版夜神月

JTWC原本已Final Warning後又改定強為TS並繼續發報

WDPN31 PGTW 202100 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 28W (RAI) WARNING NR
031 AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.8N 112.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 231 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
FURTHER COLLAPSED AND DISINTEGRATED AS IT IS NOW SHEARED 100+ NM
NORTHEASTWARD OF A FULLY EXPOSED AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED
WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SERIES OF SCATTEROMETER DATA AND
REFLECTS THE RAPID DETERIORATION. TS RAI IS IN A HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25+ KTS) RELATIVE VWS, COOL (24-25C) SSTS
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), AND COLD DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE LOW
LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST COLD SURGE IN THE SCS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 201140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 24-25 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS RAI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AND
RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF AN EARLIER DISSIPATION.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM

4. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: AMENDED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35KTS.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

ASCAT風場掃描仍有35KT以上風旗
代表有些機構可能降TD降的稍早了些

老農民版夜神月

JTWC正式發布Final Warning
結束雷伊-2021這一年,最後的傳奇,冬日中盛開的奇蹟之花
而雷伊這個名子,也注定將因其對菲律賓造成的巨大損失傷亡,而遭除名

WTPN31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 28W (RAI) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 28W (RAI) WARNING NR 032   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 113.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 113.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 21.1N 115.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 21.9N 118.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 113.5E.
20DEC21. TROPICAL STORM 28W (RAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CIRCULATION HAS LOST ALL
CONVECTION AS IT TRANSLATES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
23-24 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO IMMINENTLY
BECOME SUBTROPICAL AS THE CIRCULATION GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 201800Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN

蜜露

菲律賓這次風災很嚴重  全國統計損失是菲律賓風災史上第三高的 (前二是2013海燕 2012寶發)

死亡人數也達到了401人  失蹤還有60人  有56人還是下落不明多天

開梅

結果根據最新的資料：2022年沒有一個會員國為2021年西太的颱風提出除名建議，雷伊和烟花這名字被保留下來了。
只是氣象局技術性，改為『煙花』