老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：91 B
擾動編號日期 ：2021 年 11 月 07 日 14 時
撤編日期        ：2021 年 11 月 12 日 02 時
91B.INVEST.15kts.999mb.2.5N.95.5E

老農民版夜神月

部分系集看好91B能於登陸印度東南岸前有所發展

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7N
89.9E, APPROXIMATELY 667 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MID TO LOW
LEVEL TURNING AROUND AN ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (05-
10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE GOOD IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST
91B WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GFS AND NAVGEM
ARE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT, WHEREAS ECMWF AND ICON ARE
MUCH MORE RESERVED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級提升至Medium

ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN/OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 89.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 87.3E, APPROXIMATELY 467 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091226Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
DISORGANIZED FORMATIVE BANDING CONVECTION WITH BROAD MID TO LOW
LEVEL TURNING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 091424Z METOP-
A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEFINED BUT ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST EASTERLY OUTFLOW, LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

IMD標示為LPA

老農民版夜神月

IMD開始對其發報

老農民版夜神月

其實風場掃描已有35KT風旗
(過濾前)

(過濾後)

老農民版夜神月

JTWC終於發布TCFA

ABIO10 PGTW 102000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/102000Z-111800ZNOV2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 82.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 82.1E, APPROXIMATELY 122
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA.  ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 101522Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICT A
BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION SHEARED 80+ NM NORTHWESTWARD OF AN EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PATCHES OF 25-30KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY UNDER THE FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30KT) RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AND WITH A SMALL WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 101930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH//
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