老農民版夜神月

NHC18Z命名PAMELA,同時將12Z時強度上修為TS,並在預報中上望C2上限95KT

EP, 16, 2021101012,   , BEST,   0, 147N, 1039W,  35, 1007, TS,  34, NEQ,   50,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  150,  30,  40,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,    SIXTEEN, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,
EP, 16, 2021101018,   , BEST,   0, 153N, 1054W,  40, 1005, TS,  34, NEQ,   50,    0,    0,    0, 1010,  150,  30,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     PAMELA, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027,

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 14.8N 104.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  11/0000Z 15.4N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  11/1200Z 16.0N 108.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  12/0000Z 17.1N 109.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  12/1200Z 18.4N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  13/0000Z 19.9N 109.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
72H  13/1200Z 21.8N 109.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
96H  14/1200Z 26.3N 105.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

king111807

NHC升格C1

003
WTPZ41 KNHC 120834
TCDEP1

Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021

After being relatively steady in strength for the past 12 hours or
so, satellite images indicate that Pamela has resumed intensifying.
A large area of deep convection has developed during the past
several hours, and the center is estimated to be located near the
middle of the convective mass.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB have both increased to 4.0/65 kt, and therefore, Pamela has
now been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm later
this morning and early afternoon to provide a better assessment of
Pamela's structure, intensity, and wind field.

Pamela has made the expected turn to the north, with the latest
initial motion estimated to be 360/10 kt.  The system is now on the
western periphery of the ridge, which should cause it to continue
moving northward today.  However, by tonight, Pamela is forecast to
become embedded in the flow on the south side of a broad mid- to
upper-level trough, and that feature should cause the hurricane to
move faster to the northeast toward the coast of west-central
Mexico. After the storm moves inland early Wednesday, Pamela, or its
remnants should accelerate northeastward across central and northern
Mexico by the end of the week.  The NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope.

Even though Pamela has not strengthened as quickly as thought up to
this point, the overall intensity forecast philosophy has not
changed much.  The storm is expected to be in generally favorable
conditions to gain strength until it reaches the coast of Mexico in
24 to 36 hours.  Therefore, the NHC forecast continues to predict
steady to rapid strengthening, and Pamela is likely to be near major
hurricane intensity when it makes landfall.  After landfall, Pamela
is expected to rapidly decay due to the rugged terrain of Mexico,
and it should ultimately dissipate over northern Mexico in 2 to 3
days.  The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model
guidance.

Although the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous
terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's
remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern
Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the
south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday.

Key Messages:

1. Pamela is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it
reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and
life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are expected within the Hurricane Warning area.  Residents in this
area should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula as a hurricane later today an tonight,
and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
storm Watch area.

3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the
Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern
portions of Baja California Sur later today and Wednesday. This will
pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

4. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected
across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late
Wednesday and Thursday.  This may result in flash and urban
flooding.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 19.2N 108.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  12/1800Z 20.5N 108.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  13/0600Z 22.4N 107.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  13/1800Z 25.1N 105.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
48H  14/0600Z 28.4N 101.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

king111807

NHC降格TS

INIT  13/0300Z 21.9N 108.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  13/1200Z 23.8N 106.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H  14/0000Z 26.6N 103.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
36H  14/1200Z 29.7N  99.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

king111807

NHC判定登陸墨西哥

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 131452
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Pamela Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021

Pamela is estimated to have made landfall around 1200 UTC close to
Estacion Dimas in the Mexican state of Sinaloa as a 65-kt hurricane.
To the southeast of the landfall location, observations from the
Mazatlan Airport indicated wind gusts to 40 kt had occurred. There
was also a storm chaser located at Marmor de Salcido, Mexico, who
measured a minimum pressure of 990.8 mb with southeasterly winds to
20 kt at 1208 UTC. Thus, based on these data, the estimated landfall
location and an estimated minimum central pressure of 987 mb appears
reasonable. Vigorous deep convection is still occuring around
Pamela's estimated center as it moves farther inland. However, since
the center has been onshore for a few hours now, the wind field is
likely starting to spin down and maximum sustained winds are
estimated to have decreased to 55 kt.

The tropical cyclone has been accelerating to the northeast this
morning, with the latest estimated motion at 045/20 kt. Further
acceleration to the northeast is expected as the system remains
embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow between a long-wave trough
over the western United States and a mid-level ridge centered over
the Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is in good agreement on this
solution with the storm losing its identity after the 12-h forecast
period and the latest track forecast remains close to the model
consensus solutions.

Pamela's circulation is not forecast to survive the passage over
the high, rugged terrain of Central Mexico, but its remnants are
expected to contain a large slug of deep-layer moisture that will be
advected northeastward into the south-central United States.
Additional heavy rainfall and flooding impacts are anticipated later
today and on Thursday for these areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 24.4N 106.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
12H  14/0000Z 26.6N 102.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
24H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND