|
|
霧峰追風者|2021-10-8 15:04
|
顯示全部樓層
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1N 131.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 131.3E, APPROXIMATELY
617NM EAST OF MANILA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH EXTENSIVE
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT
LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES. A 080036Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED,
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WESTERLIES AND WEAKER WINDS
(05-20 KNOTS) ELSEWHERE. A 080444Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS
FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES BUT
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A DEFINED LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH CONVERGENT NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE LLC AND
LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE INVEST 93W WILL MERGE WITH INVEST 94W IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MERGE WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK MOTION AS WELL.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. 
|
|
