老農民版夜神月

  輕度颱風  
編號：2117 ( 22 W )
名稱：獅子山 ( Lionrock )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期       ：2021 年 10 月 02 日 08 時
JMA升格熱低日期：2021 年 10 月 05 日 14 時
CWB編號日期　   ：2021 年 10 月 07 日 08 時
命名日期　    　    ：2021 年 10 月 08 日 02 時
停編日期　　       ：2021 年 10 月 10 日 14 時
登陸地點　　 　   ： 中國 海南省
　　 　   　　 　　   越南 南定省

巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB)：20 m/s ( 8 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：18 m/s ( 35 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：40 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓： 992 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　： 100 公里
十級風半徑　　： ---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
92W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.10N.135E



以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.4N
133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 493 NM EAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF ROTATION WITH FLARING
CONVECTION. A 020148Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWED NO ROTATION AT THE
SURFACE. THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION, AS THE
ASSOCIATED ROTATION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MIDDLE-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. INVEST 92W IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE 92W WILL INTESIFY BEFORE REACHING THE
PHILIPPINES WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

甜心

這隻大型擾動低壓寶寶生成位置在這個季節對我們臺灣來說不太友善，下週一開始太平洋高壓會重新增強西伸我們得注意這傢伙的後期動向，目前各國模式預報國慶日後會有一個影響臺灣的高強度巨物系統應該就是它。

king111807

JTWC評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.4N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 131.8E, APPROXIMATELY 367
NM EAST OF DAVAO. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AND
CONSOLIDATING AREA OF ROTATION WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. A 021048Z ASCAT-A PASS SHOWED A BROAD AND ELONGATED
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A BAND OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTH TO SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER, CYCLONIC TURNING INTO THE
CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (30C) SSTS AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTLFOW ALOFT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE
92W WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTESIFY BEFORE REACHING THE PHILIPPINES
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 022230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.0N 130.9E TO 9.2N 125.6EWITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 022200Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 130.5E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 133.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 130.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 719 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 022012Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-
15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
92W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY TO A SMALL
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
032230Z.
//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC取消TCFA，降評至Medium

WTPN21 PGTW 032230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022221Z OCT 21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 022230). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.78N 128.6E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 136 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. THE BROAD AREA OF TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 92W
HAS TRACKED OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, LOWERING THE PROBABILITY OF
IMMEDIATE FORMATION. HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES PROBABLE
FORMATION ONCE INVEST 92W CROSSES THE PHILIPPINES AND ENTERS THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

king111807

JTWC再度發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 041430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 121.5E TO 13.4N 116.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 121.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.78N 128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 121.5E, APPROXIMATELY 160
NM EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A
041021Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION AROUND
A BROAD LLC. 92W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE INVEST 92W
WILL STRENGTH TO WARNING CRITERIA AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051430Z.
//
NNNN

天篷大元帥

日本氣象廳：熱帯低気圧