老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：96 W
擾動編號日期 ：2021 年 09 月 08 日 06 時
撤編日期        ：2021 年 09 月 00 日 00 時
96W.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.12.6N.140.5E

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.0N 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY 623 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
090913Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A POCKET OF DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC, AND AN OVERALL LACK OF
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. INVEST 96W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WEAK OUTFLOW
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 96W WILL DISSIPATE AS IT
INTERACTS WITH STY 19W, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH DEPICTS 96W
TRACKING POLEWARD OF STY 19W AND CONSOLIDATING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

GFS的96W...好像出現了一點bug

老農民版夜神月

JTWC撤評

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.0N 132.7E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

霧峰追風者

即將登陸臺灣

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 101700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.4N 125.8E TO 23.2N 117.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.7N 124.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 30
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.7N 124.9E, APPROXIMATELY 102 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 101148Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
WITH SHARPLY CURVED WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, 25-30 KT WINDS
IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC.
INVEST 96W IS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF STY 19W AND IS
UNDERGOING FUJIWARA INTERACTION WITH RAPID TRACK SPEEDS. INVEST 96W
IS UNDER THE WESTERLY OUTFLOW FROM STY 19W, HOWEVER, VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) ALLOWING DEEP CONVECTION TO PERSIST
AND WEAKLY ORGANIZE. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM
AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 96W WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
RAPIDLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF STY 19W AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM TRACKS
OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF TAIWAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111700Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC解除TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 110700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101651Z SEP 12//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 101700)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 101700). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 124.9E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 121.1E, APPROXIMATELY 213 NM SOUTHWEST OF
ISHIGAKIJIMA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND
RECENT PARTIAL SCATTEROMETER PASSES DO NOT SHOW A SEPARATE AND
DISCREET LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AT THIS TIME. WHATEVER LLC THAT
WAS PRESENT HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH STY 19W AND HAS DISSIPATED AS A SEPARATE LLC.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. INVEST
96W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED  SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
//
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