老農民版夜神月

  輕度颱風  
編號：2113 ( 18 W )
名稱： 康森 ( Conson )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        ：2021 年 09 月 05 日 08 時
JMA升格熱低日期：2021 年 09 月 06 日 02 時
CWB編號日期      ：2021 年 09 月 06 日 14 時
命名日期　    　    ：2021 年 09 月 06 日 14 時
停編日期              ：2021 年 09 月 12 日 02 時
登陸地點　　 　  ： 菲律賓 東薩馬省

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB)：28 m/s ( 10 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：30 m/s ( 55 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：65 kts ( Cat.1 )
菲律賓大氣地球物理和天文服務管理局(PAGASA)：120 km/h
海平面最低氣壓： 980 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　： 120 公里
十級風半徑　　： ---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
95W.INVEST.15kts.1008mb.11N.131E



以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、PAGASA、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.2N 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 446 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSUCRING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. INVEST
95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, WARM (30C) SST, AND LOW (<15KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THAT INVEST 95W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY, CONSOLIDATION
AND INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

蔡秉勳

持續爆對流快一天了，因處在良好的環境(1.高SST OHC，
2.良好極向流出，甚至比94w更好
3.低垂直風切)，逐漸北漂過程也有逐漸發展的趨勢，但主流數值決定性預報，
對他的發展仍保守，不知道與94w 互動是否有機會占優勢，
目前個數值指出其趨向巴士海峽、菲北
重點：最新已掃出35kts的風標

king111807

JTWC評級Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 131.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 129.7E, APPROXIMATELY
367 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED EIR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSUCRING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. A 051148Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALS 15-20 KT WINDS
ALONG THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, AND MARGINAL WRAPPING OF
THE WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (30C)
SST, AND LOW (<15KT) VWS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST
95W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY, CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JMA升格TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 10N 129E WEST SLOWLY.

老農民版夜神月

EC,GFS最新系集

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 052300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
105 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 128.9E TO 12.6N 125.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090518Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2N 128.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 129.7E IS NOW LOCATED 10.2N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM
SOUTH EAST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD NOTCHED CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION(LLC). A 051703Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A CURVED, DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS REVEALS
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH 95W OVERALL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH
GRADUAL DEVELOP AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36HRS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
062300Z.
//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWCZ00Z隨即升格18W

18W EIGHTEEN 210906 0000 10.5N 127.5E WPAC 30 1004