2114 璨樹台灣東方近海北上 1951年以來福岡縣首個颱風登陸

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-9-2 11:48

  強烈颱風
編號：2114 ( 19 W )
名稱：璨樹 ( Chanthu )

  基本資料
擾動編號日期       ：2021 年 09 月 02 日 11 時
JMA升格熱低日期：2021 年 09 月 06 日 02 時
CWB編號日期    ：2021 年 09 月 06 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 09 月 07 日 08 時
停編日期             ：2021 年 09 月 18 日 14 時
登陸地點　　　  ：菲律賓巴丹群島省烏由干
　　　　　　　　日本福岡縣福津市
　　　　　　　　  　愛媛縣松山市
　　　　　　　　  　和歌山縣有田市
颱風警報總計　  ：海上警報 24 報
　　　　    陸上警報 17 報

  巔峰時期資料
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB)：58 m/s ( 17 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：60 m/s ( 115 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：155 kts ( Cat.5 )
海平面最低氣壓： 915 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　：200 公里
十級風半徑　　： 70 公里

  過去路徑圖

  擾動編號資料
94W.INVEST.15kts.1002mb.8.4N.152E

以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-9-3 08:00

GFS18Z決定報及系集

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-9-3 11:47

本帖最後由老農民版夜神月於 2021-9-3 12:37 編輯

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.7N
144.8E, APPROXIMATELY 232 NM SOUTH OF ANDERSEN, AFB. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING
CONVECTION CYCLING OVER A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. CONFIDENCE IN THE BEST TRACK POSITION IS HIGH WITH
SUPPORT PROVIDED BY A 022203Z METOP-A BULLSEYE PASS WHICH SHOWED
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH 94W
POSITIONED NEAR THE DIVERGENT PORTION OF A COL REGION PROVIDING GOOD
DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VWS (10 TO 20 KNOT) VWS, AND
VERY WARM (30 TO 31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFY THOUGH THE ECMWF REMAINS AN OUTLIER,
FORECASTING MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF
THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS IN THE VICINITY OR JUST
WEST OF THE SOUTHERN MARIANAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

20210903.0400.himawari-8.vis.94W.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.9.7N.144.8E.100pc.jpg

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-9-4 08:11

GFS新報再度預報94W劍指台灣
gfs_mslp_pcpn_wpac_22 (1).png

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-9-4 10:56

JTWC00Z調升其定強至20節,風場掃描亦有掃出其南側有局部較強風旗

94W INVEST 210904 0000 11.2N 141.9E WPAC 20 1007

20210904.0039.mtb.ASCAT.wind.94W.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.112N.1419E.25km.noqc.jpg

甜心 · 2021-9-4 12:58

老農民版夜神月發表於 2021-9-4 08:11
GFS新報再度預報94W劍指台灣

會出現這樣的預報是因為最新的天氣數據資料顯示下週二開始臺灣東方海面上的老大太平洋高壓它又要開始增強大舉西伸，而它能增強到什麼程度將會間接引響的這個系統的後期動向跟偏西幅度。

老農民版夜神月 · 2021-9-5 08:16

GFS最新決定報及系集
94W_tracks_latest (2).png

king111807 · 2021-9-5 23:23

JTWC評級Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 140.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.5E, APPROXIMATELY
304 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSUCRING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE. INVEST 95W IS IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW
(<15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 94W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY,
CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH INVEST 95W. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL
INTENSIFY BEYOND TAU 48 TO WARNING STRENGTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.