0908morakot

  輕度颱風  
編號：2111 ( 15 W )
名稱：妮妲 ( Nida )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        ：2021 年 08 月 01 日 14 時
JMA升格熱低日期：2021 年 08 月 03 日 11 時
命名日期　    　    ：2021 年 08 月 05 日 14 時
停編日期　　        ：2021 年 08 月 08 日 08 時
登陸地點　　 　   ：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB)：25 m/s ( 10 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：25 m/s ( 50 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：55 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓： 982 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　： 100 公里
十級風半徑　　： ---- 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
99W.INVEST.15kts.1001mb.20N.140E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

(4) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.1N 140.4E, APPROXIMATELY 378 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021929Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS), GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY
INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

周子堯@FB

JMA 03/03Z非正報升格99W為TD

霧峰追風者

WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA

AT 18.5N 140.9E MARIANAS MOVING NE 10 KNOTS.

POSITION POOR.

MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC提升評級至Medium

ABPW10 PGTW 040030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/040030Z-040600ZAUG2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030751ZAUG2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031951ZAUG2021//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032221ZAUG2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03AUG21 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 537 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 030900) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 03AUG21 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 114.8E, APPROXIMATELY 85 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 032100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 24.3N 125.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 125.8E, APPROXIMATELY
167 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 032011Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
OBSCURED LLC CAN BE SEEN AS WELL. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW-MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
HOWEVER, GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS WHILE UKMET AND JGSM STILL DISAGREE WITH THE SYSTEM
DEPICTED WITH ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 032230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.8N 145.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY
612 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 031916Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE LLC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (< 15 KNOTS),
GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(2) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN22 PGTW 040330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/032221Z AUG 21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 032230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.8N 146.4E TO 32.8N 147.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 040000Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 147.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.8N 145.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 147.0E, APPROXIMATELY
732NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 032134Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM. A
032337Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS INDICATES AN ISOLATED PATCH OF 35-40 KNOT
WIND BARBS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AS 99W
BEGINS TO TRACK INTO AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<15 KNOTS).
FURTHERMORE, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C) AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 99W. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE POSSIBLE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050330Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 125.8E
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格15W

15W FIFTEEN 210804 1200 28.8N 148.0E WPAC 30 1002

老農民版夜神月

其實從昨晚的風場看來就可以命名了,但直至18ZJMA仍維持[W]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 30.2N 146.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 20 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.